Expert assessment of sea-level rise by AD 2100 and AD 2300
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Material Information

Title:
Expert assessment of sea-level rise by AD 2100 and AD 2300
Series Title:
Quaternary Science Reviews Volume 84
Creator:
Horton, Benjamin P.
Rahmstorf, Stefan
Engelhart, Simon E.
Kemp, Andrew C.
Publisher:
Elsevier
Publication Date:
Language:
English

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Climate Change ( lcsh )
Sea Level Rise ( lcsh )
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ( lcsh )

Notes

Abstract:
Large uncertainty surrounds projections of global sea-level rise, resulting from uncertainty about future warming and an incomplete understanding of the complex processes and feedback mechanisms that cause sea level to rise. Consequently, existing models produce widely differing predictions of sea-level rise even for the same temperature scenario. Here we present results of a broad survey of 90 experts who were amongst the most active scientific publishers on the topic of sea level in recent years. They provided a probabilistic assessment of sea-level rise by AD 2100 and AD 2300 under two contrasting temperature scenarios. For the low scenario, which limits warming to <2 [degrees]C above pre-industrial temperature and has slowly falling temperature after AD 2050, the median ‘likely’ range provided by the experts is 0.4e0.6 m by AD 2100 and 0.6e1.0 m by AD 2300, suggesting a good chance to limit future sealevel rise to <1.0 m if climate mitigation measures are successfully implemented. In contrast, for the high warming scenario (4.5 [degrees]C by AD 2100 and 8 [degrees]C in AD 2300) the median likely ranges are 0.7e1.2 m by AD 2100 and 2.0e3.0 m by AD 2300, calling into question the future survival of some coastal cities and lowlying island nations. ( English )

Record Information

Source Institution:
Florida International University
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Sea Level Rise