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|a Expert assessment of sea-level rise by AD 2100 and AD 2300 |h [electronic resource]. |
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|a [S.l.] : |b Elsevier, |c 2014. |
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|a Quaternary Science Reviews Volume 84. |
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|a Please contact the owning institution for licensing and permissions. It is the user's responsibility to ensure use does not violate any third party rights. |
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|a Large uncertainty surrounds projections of global sea-level rise, resulting from uncertainty about future
warming and an incomplete understanding of the complex processes and feedback mechanisms that
cause sea level to rise. Consequently, existing models produce widely differing predictions of sea-level
rise even for the same temperature scenario. Here we present results of a broad survey of 90 experts
who were amongst the most active scientific publishers on the topic of sea level in recent years. They
provided a probabilistic assessment of sea-level rise by AD 2100 and AD 2300 under two contrasting
temperature scenarios. For the low scenario, which limits warming to <2 [degrees]C above pre-industrial temperature
and has slowly falling temperature after AD 2050, the median ‘likely’ range provided by the
experts is 0.4e0.6 m by AD 2100 and 0.6e1.0 m by AD 2300, suggesting a good chance to limit future sealevel
rise to <1.0 m if climate mitigation measures are successfully implemented. In contrast, for the high
warming scenario (4.5 [degrees]C by AD 2100 and 8 [degrees]C in AD 2300) the median likely ranges are 0.7e1.2 m by AD
2100 and 2.0e3.0 m by AD 2300, calling into question the future survival of some coastal cities and lowlying
island nations. |
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|a Electronic reproduction. |c Florida International University, |d 2015. |f (dpSobek) |n Mode of access: World Wide Web. |n System requirements: Internet connectivity; Web browser software. |
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|a Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. |
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|t Expert assessment of sea-level rise by AD 2100 and AD 2300 |
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|a dpSobek |c Sea Level Rise |
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|u http://dpanther.fiu.edu/dpService/dpPurlService/purl/FI15061930/00001 |y Click here for full text |
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|3 Host material |u http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379113004381 |y Expert assessment of sea-level rise by AD 2100 and AD 2300 |
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|a http://dpanther.fiu.edu/sobek/content/FI/15/06/19/30/00001/FI15061930thm.jpg |
