Recent Climate Observations Compared to Projections
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Material Information

Title:
Recent Climate Observations Compared to Projections
Series Title:
Science Magazine Volume 316
Creator:
Rahmstorf, Stefan
Cazenave, Anny
Church, John A.
Hansen, James E.
Keeling, Ralph F.
Parker, David E.
Somerville, Richard C.J.
Publisher:
American Association for the Advancement of Science
Publication Date:
Language:
English

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Climate Change ( lcsh )
Emission Reduction, Greenhouse Gas ( lcsh )
Sea Level Rise ( lcsh )
Global Warming ( lcsh )

Notes

Summary:
Observations of the climate system are crucial to establish actual climatic trends, whereas climate models are used to project how quantities like global mean air temperature and sea level may be expected to respond to anthropogenic perturbations of the Earth's radiation budget. We compiled the most recent observed climate trends for carbon dioxide concentration, global mean air temperature, and global sea level, and we compare these trends to previous model projections as summarized in the 2001 assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (1). The IPCC scenarios and projections start in the year 1990, which is also the base year of the Kyoto protocol, in which almost all industrialized nations accepted a binding commitment to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. Although published in 2001, these model projections are essentially independent from the observed climate data since 1990: Climate models are physics-based models developed over many years that are not “tuned” to reproduce the most recent temperatures, and global sea-level data were not yet available at the time. The data now available raise concerns that the climate system, in particular sea level, may be responding more quickly than climate models indicate. ( English )

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Source Institution:
Florida International University
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