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|a Modelling sea level rise impacts on storm surges along US coasts |h [electronic resource]. |
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|a [S.l.] : |b Institute of Physics Publishing, |c 2012. |
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|a Environmental Research Letters Volume 7. |
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|a Please contact the owning institution for licensing and permissions. It is the user's responsibility to ensure use does not violate any third party rights. |
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|a Sound policies for protecting coastal communities and assets require good information about
vulnerability to flooding. Here, we investigate the influence of sea level rise on expected storm
surge-driven water levels and their frequencies along the contiguous United States. We use
model output for global temperature changes, a semi-empirical model of global sea level rise,
and long-term records from 55 nationally distributed tidal gauges to develop sea level rise
projections at each gauge location. We employ more detailed records over the period
1979–2008 from the same gauges to elicit historic patterns of extreme high water events, and
combine these statistics with anticipated relative sea level rise to project changing local
extremes through 2050. We find that substantial changes in the frequency of what are now
considered extreme water levels may occur even at locations with relatively slow local sea
level rise, when the difference in height between presently common and rare water levels is
small. We estimate that, by mid-century, some locations may experience high water levels
annually that would qualify today as ‘century’ (i.e., having a chance of occurrence of 1%
annually) extremes. Today’s century levels become ‘decade’ (having a chance of 10%
annually) or more frequent events at about a third of the study gauges, and the majority of
locations see substantially higher frequency of previously rare storm-driven water heights in
the future. These results add support to the need for policy approaches that consider the
non-stationarity of extreme events when evaluating risks of adverse climate impacts. |
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|a Electronic reproduction. |c Florida International University, |d 2015. |f (dpSobek) |n Mode of access: World Wide Web. |n System requirements: Internet connectivity; Web browser software. |
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|a dpSobek |c Sea Level Rise |
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|u http://dpanther.fiu.edu/dpService/dpPurlService/purl/FI15060966/00001 |y Click here for full text |
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|a http://dpanther.fiu.edu/sobek/content/FI/15/06/09/66/00001/Tebaldi et al_2012_Modelling sea level rise impacts on storm surges along US coaststhm.jpg |
