A Unified Sea Level Rise Projection for Southeast Florida
Permanent Link:

Material Information

Title:
A Unified Sea Level Rise Projection for Southeast Florida
Creator:
Technical Ad Hoc Work Group
Publisher:
Southeast Florida Regional Compact Climate Change
Publication Date:
Language:
English

Notes

Summary:
Southeast Florida with its populous coastal counties, subtropical environment, porous geology and low topography is particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change, especially sea level rise. At the October 23, 2009 Southeast Florida (SE Fl) Regional Climate Leadership Summit, the local diversity in sea level rise (SLR) projections was highlighted as a concern and a barrier to achieving regionally consistent adaptation policies. As expressed by the SE Fl Regional Climate Change Compact Steering Committee, the Climate Compact Counties (Monroe, Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach) recognized the critical need to unify the existing local SLR projections to create a single regional SLR projection. Key participants in developing the existing projections and other local scientists knowledgeable in the areas of sea level rise and climate change were invited to participate as the Regional Climate Change Compact Technical Ad hoc Work Group (Work Group). Their objective was to work toward developing a unified SLR projection for the SE Florida region for use by the SE Fl Regional Climate Compact Counties and partners. Through a series of facilitated discussions, the Work Group reviewed the existing projections and the current scientific literature related to SLR with particular emphasis on the impact of accelerated ice melt on projections. The Work Group recommends that the SLR projection to be used for planning purposes in the SE Florida region should be based on the Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) June 2009 Guidance Document. The projection uses Key West tidal data as the foundation of the calculation with a reference date of 2010 for sea level equals zero and two planning horizons including 2030 (USACE: 3-7 inches) and 2060 (USACE: 9-24 inches). The historic tidal and satellite altimetry data for the past few decades should be illustrated on the unified projection graphic to provide perspective on the projected rate of change of sea level. The Work Group recommends that the projection should be reviewed and possibly revised in two years (2012). While the projection to be used for planning purposes looks out 50 years, a scientific narrative for beyond 2060 is also provided. This longer term vision describes the factors influencing sea level rise, the scientific challenges and areas where information is still needed. This section serves as a reminder that at any point in time in the coming decades, sea level rise is a continuing trend and not an endpoint. Potential impacts to south Florida are also outlined. The shorter term planning horizons are critical to develop the Regional Climate Action Plan and explore infrastructure options and design and adaptation strategies. As scientists develop a better understanding of the potential sea level rise at the end of the century, SE Fl community will need to adjust and adapt to the changing conditions.

Record Information

Source Institution:
Florida International University
Rights Management:
Please contact the owning institution for licensing and permissions. It is the user's responsibility to ensure use does not violate any third party rights.