A Unified Sea Level Rise Projection for Southeast Florida
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Title:
A Unified Sea Level Rise Projection for Southeast Florida
Creator:
Southeast Florida Regional Compact Climate Change
Publication Date:
Language:
English

Notes

Summary:
Southeast Florida with its populous coastal counties, subtropical environment, porous geology and low topography is particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change, especially sea level rise. At the October 23, 2009 Southeast Florida (SE FL) Regional Climate Leadership Summit, the local diversity in sea level rise (SLR) projections was highlighted as a concern and a barrier to achieving regionally consistent adaptation policies and to demonstrating a coordinated local effort to higher political levels. Following the summit, the four counties of Southeast Florida (Monroe, Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach) entered into the SE FL Regional Climate Change Compact to work cooperatively to address climate concerns in the region. As expressed by the SE FL Compact Steering Committee, the Climate Compact Counties recognized the critical need to unify the existing local SLR projections to create a single regional SLR projection. Key participants in developing the existing projections and other local scientists specializing in the areas of sea level rise and climate change were invited to participate as the Regional Climate Change Compact Technical Ad hoc Work Group (Work Group). Their objective was to work toward developing a unified SLR projection for the SE Florida region for use by the SE FL Regional Climate Compact Counties and partners for planning purposes to aid in understanding potential vulnerabilities and to provide a basis for outlining adaptation strategies for the SE FL region. Through a series of facilitated discussions, the Work Group reviewed the existing projections and the current scientific literature related to SLR with particular emphasis on the impact of accelerating ice melt on projections. The Work Group recommends that the SLR projection to be used for planning purposes in the SE FL region be based on the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) July 2009 Guidance Document until more definitive information on future SLR is available. The projection uses Key West tidal data from 1913-1999 as the foundation of the calculation and references the year 2010 as the starting date of the projection. Two key planning horizons are highlighted: 2030 when SLR is projected to be 3-7 inches and 2060 when SLR is projected to be 9-24 inches (Figure E-1). Sea level is projected to rise one foot from the 2010 level between 2040 and 2070, but a two foot rise is possible by 2060. The historic tidal data for the past few decades is illustrated on the unified projection graphic to provide perspective on the projected rate of change of sea level. The historic rate extrapolated into the future is shown for comparison to the projected sea level rise curves but is not intended as a lower-limit projection. Due to the rapidly changing body of scientific literature on this topic, the Work Group recommends that the projection should be reviewed and possibly revised four years from final approval of this document by the SE FL Regional Climate Change Compact Steering Committee and after the release of United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. The scientific evidence strongly supports that sea level is rising and, beyond 2060, will continue to rise even if mitigation efforts to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are successful at stabilizing or reducing atmospheric GHG concentrations. A substantial increase in sea level rise within this century is likely and may occur in rapid pulses rather than gradually. However, precisely predicting future climateinduced sea level rise and associated rates of acceleration is difficult. Uncertainties exist because of natural variability, positive feedback mechanisms that accelerate select climate processes, the A Unified Sea Level Rise Projection for Southeast Florida iv limitations of existing computer models and the inability to forecast the scope of human response in the near or long-range future to the need to limit greenhouse gas emissions and levels. Because of these limitations, a scientific narrative for beyond 2060 is provided to lend perspective on the potential for SLR toward the end of the century. Section E on “Sea Level Rise Projections Beyond 2060” describes (1) current global projections for the end of the century and (2) leading indicators and reinforcing feedback mechanisms of sea level rise, including continued emission of greenhouse gases, the impact of warm ocean water on glacial melt and ice sheets and open water impacts on pack ice.

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Source Institution:
Florida International University
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