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|a The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability |h [electronic resource]. |
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|a [S.l.] : |b Macmillan Publishers Limited, |c 2013-10-10. |
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|a Nature Magazine Volume 502. |
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|a Please contact the owning institution for licensing and permissions. It is the user's responsibility to ensure use does not violate any third party rights. |
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|a Ecological and societal disruptions by modern climate change are critically determined by the time frame over which
climates shift beyond historical analogues. Here we present a new index of the year when the projected mean climate of
a given locationmoves to a state continuously outside the bounds of historical variability under alternative greenhouse gas
emissions scenarios. Using 1860 to 2005 as the historical period, this index has a global mean of 2069 (618 years s.d.) for
near-surface air temperatureunderanemissions stabilizationscenarioand2047 (614 years s.d.)undera ‘business-as-usual’
scenario. Unprecedented climates will occur earliest in the tropics and among low-income countries, highlighting the
vulnerability of global biodiversity and the limited governmental capacity to respond to the impacts of climate change.
Our findings shed light on the urgency ofmitigating greenhouse gasemissions if climates potentially harmful to biodiversity
and society are to be prevented. |
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|a Electronic reproduction. |c Florida International University, |d 2015. |f (dpSobek) |n Mode of access: World Wide Web. |n System requirements: Internet connectivity; Web browser software. |
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|a Earth (Planet)-- Surface temperature. |
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|a Christine M. Ambrosino. |
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|a Thomas W. Giambelluca. |
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|a dpSobek |c Sea Level Rise |
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|u http://dpanther.fiu.edu/dpService/dpPurlService/purl/FI15052501/00001 |y Click here for full text |
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|a http://dpanther.fiu.edu/sobek/content/FI/15/05/25/01/00001/FI15052501_thm.jpg |
