The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability
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Material Information

Title:
The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability
Series Title:
Nature Magazine Volume 502
Creator:
Camilo Mora
Abby G. Frazier
Ryan J. Longman
Rachel S. Dacks
Maya M. Walton
Eric J. Tong
Joseph J. Sanchez
Lauren R. Kaiser
Yuko O. Stender
James M. Anderson
Christine M. Ambrosino
Iria Fernandez-Silva
Louise M. Giuseffi
Thomas W. Giambelluca
Affiliation:
University of Hawaii -- Department of Geography
University of Hawaii -- Department of Geography
University of Hawaii -- Department of Geography
University of Hawaii -- Department of Biology
University of Hawaii -- Department of Biology
University of Hawaii -- Manoa -- Hawaii Institute of Marine Biology
University of Hawaii -- Department of Geography
University of Hawaii -- Department of Geography
University of Hawaii -- Department of Geography
University of Hawaii -- Department of Biology
University of Hawaii -- Manoa -- Department of Biology
University of Hawaii -- Manoa -- Hawaii Institute of Marine Biology
University of Hawaii -- Department of Geography
University of Hawaii -- Department of Geography
Publisher:
Macmillan Publishers Limited
Publication Date:
Language:
English

Notes

Abstract:
Ecological and societal disruptions by modern climate change are critically determined by the time frame over which climates shift beyond historical analogues. Here we present a new index of the year when the projected mean climate of a given locationmoves to a state continuously outside the bounds of historical variability under alternative greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Using 1860 to 2005 as the historical period, this index has a global mean of 2069 (618 years s.d.) for near-surface air temperatureunderanemissions stabilizationscenarioand2047 (614 years s.d.)undera ‘business-as-usual’ scenario. Unprecedented climates will occur earliest in the tropics and among low-income countries, highlighting the vulnerability of global biodiversity and the limited governmental capacity to respond to the impacts of climate change. Our findings shed light on the urgency ofmitigating greenhouse gasemissions if climates potentially harmful to biodiversity and society are to be prevented.

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Source Institution:
Florida International University
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