Multimodel assessment of water scarcity under climate change
Permanent Link:

Material Information

Title:
Multimodel assessment of water scarcity under climate change
Series Title:
Proceedings of the National Academy of Science
Creator:
Jacob Schewe
Jens Heinke
Dieter Gerten
Ingjerd Haddeland
Nigel W. Amell
Douglas B. Clark
Rutger Dankers
Stephanie Eisner
Balazs M. Fekete
Felipe J Colon Gonzalez
Simon N Gosling
Hyuingjun Kim
Xingcai Liu
Yoshimitsu Masaki
Felix T. Portmann
Yusuke Satoh
Tobias Stacke
Qiuhong Tang
Yoshihide Wada
Dominik Wisser
Torsten Albrecht
Katja Frieler
Franziska Piontek
Lila Warszawski
Pavel Kabat
Affiliation:
City College of New York -- Civil Engineering Department
University of Nottingham -- School of Geography
University of Tokyo -- Institute of Industrial Science
Chinese Academy of Sciences -- Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research
University of Tokyo
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
Utrecht University -- Department of Physical Geography
University of Bonn -- Center for Development Research
Potsdam Institute for Climate Research Impact
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Publication Date:
Language:
English

Notes

Abstract:
Water scarcity severely impairs food security and economic prosperity in many countries today. Expected future population changes will, in many countries as well as globally, increase the pressure on available water resources. On the supply side, renewable water resources will be affected by projected changes in precipitation patterns, temperature, and other climate variables. Here we use a large ensemble of global hydrological models (GHMs) forced by five global climate models and the latest greenhouse-gas concentration scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways) to synthesize the current knowledge about climate change impacts on water resources. We show that climate change is likely to exacerbate regional and global water scarcity considerably. In particular, the ensemble average projects that a global warming of 2 °C above present (approximately 2.7 °C above preindustrial) will confront an additional approximate 15%of the global population with a severe decrease in water resources and will increase the number of people living under absolute water scarcity (<500m3 per capita per year) by another 40% (according to some models, more than 100%) compared with the effect of population growth alone. For some indicators of moderate impacts, the steepest increase is seen between the present day and 2 °C, whereas indicators of very severe impacts increase unabated beyond 2 °C. At the same time, the study highlights large uncertainties associated with these estimates, with both global climate models and GHMs contributing to the spread. GHM uncertainty is particularly dominant in many regions affected by declining water resources, suggesting a high potential for improved water resource projections through hydrological model development. ( English )

Record Information

Source Institution:
Florida International University
Rights Management:
Please contact the owning institution for licensing and permissions. It is the user's responsibility to ensure use does not violate any third party rights.

dpSobek Membership

Aggregations:
Sea Level Rise