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|a Multimodel assessment of water scarcity under climate change |h [electronic resource]. |
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|a Proceedings of the National Academy of Science. |
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|a Please contact the owning institution for licensing and permissions. It is the user's responsibility to ensure use does not violate any third party rights. |
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|a Water scarcity severely impairs food security and economic prosperity
in many countries today. Expected future population changes
will, in many countries as well as globally, increase the pressure on
available water resources. On the supply side, renewable water
resources will be affected by projected changes in precipitation
patterns, temperature, and other climate variables. Here we use
a large ensemble of global hydrological models (GHMs) forced by
five global climate models and the latest greenhouse-gas concentration
scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways) to synthesize
the current knowledge about climate change impacts on
water resources. We show that climate change is likely to exacerbate
regional and global water scarcity considerably. In particular,
the ensemble average projects that a global warming of 2 °C above
present (approximately 2.7 °C above preindustrial) will confront an
additional approximate 15%of the global population with a severe
decrease in water resources and will increase the number of people
living under absolute water scarcity (<500m3 per capita per year) by
another 40% (according to some models, more than 100%) compared
with the effect of population growth alone. For some indicators
of moderate impacts, the steepest increase is seen between the
present day and 2 °C, whereas indicators of very severe impacts increase
unabated beyond 2 °C. At the same time, the study highlights
large uncertainties associated with these estimates, with both global
climate models and GHMs contributing to the spread. GHM uncertainty
is particularly dominant in many regions affected by declining
water resources, suggesting a high potential for improved water
resource projections through hydrological model development. |
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|a Electronic reproduction. |c Florida International University, |d 2015. |f (dpSobek) |n Mode of access: World Wide Web. |n System requirements: Internet connectivity; Web browser software. |
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|a hydrological modeling. |
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|a Felipe J Colon Gonzalez. |
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|a dpSobek |c Sea Level Rise |
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|u http://dpanther.fiu.edu/dpService/dpPurlService/purl/FI15050324/00001 |y Click here for full text |
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|a http://dpanther.fiu.edu/sobek/content/FI/15/05/03/24/00001/FI15050324_thm.jpg |