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001        FI15050324_00001
005        20171020100050.0
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245 00 |a Multimodel assessment of water scarcity under climate change |h [electronic resource].
260        |c 2013-08-13.
490        |a Proceedings of the National Academy of Science.
506        |a Please contact the owning institution for licensing and permissions. It is the user's responsibility to ensure use does not violate any third party rights.
520 3    |a Water scarcity severely impairs food security and economic prosperity in many countries today. Expected future population changes will, in many countries as well as globally, increase the pressure on available water resources. On the supply side, renewable water resources will be affected by projected changes in precipitation patterns, temperature, and other climate variables. Here we use a large ensemble of global hydrological models (GHMs) forced by five global climate models and the latest greenhouse-gas concentration scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways) to synthesize the current knowledge about climate change impacts on water resources. We show that climate change is likely to exacerbate regional and global water scarcity considerably. In particular, the ensemble average projects that a global warming of 2 °C above present (approximately 2.7 °C above preindustrial) will confront an additional approximate 15%of the global population with a severe decrease in water resources and will increase the number of people living under absolute water scarcity (<500m3 per capita per year) by another 40% (according to some models, more than 100%) compared with the effect of population growth alone. For some indicators of moderate impacts, the steepest increase is seen between the present day and 2 °C, whereas indicators of very severe impacts increase unabated beyond 2 °C. At the same time, the study highlights large uncertainties associated with these estimates, with both global climate models and GHMs contributing to the spread. GHM uncertainty is particularly dominant in many regions affected by declining water resources, suggesting a high potential for improved water resource projections through hydrological model development.
533        |a Electronic reproduction. |c Florida International University, |d 2015. |f (dpSobek) |n Mode of access: World Wide Web. |n System requirements: Internet connectivity; Web browser software.
650        |a climate change.
650        |a food security.
650        |a hydrological modeling.
650        |a water resources.
720        |a Jacob Schewe.
720        |a Jens Heinke.
720        |a Dieter Gerten.
720        |a Ingjerd Haddeland.
720        |a Nigel W. Amell.
720        |a Douglas B. Clark.
720        |a Rutger Dankers.
720        |a Stephanie Eisner.
720        |a Balazs M. Fekete.
720        |a Felipe J Colon Gonzalez.
720        |a Simon N Gosling.
720        |a Hyuingjun Kim.
720        |a Xingcai Liu.
720        |a Yoshimitsu Masaki.
720        |a Felix T. Portmann.
720        |a Yusuke Satoh.
720        |a Tobias Stacke.
720        |a Qiuhong Tang.
720        |a Yoshihide Wada.
720        |a Dominik Wisser.
720        |a Torsten Albrecht.
720        |a Katja Frieler.
720        |a Franziska Piontek.
720        |a Lila Warszawski.
720        |a Pavel Kabat.
830    0 |a dpSobek.
830    0 |a Sea Level Rise.
852        |a dpSobek |c Sea Level Rise
856 40 |u http://dpanther.fiu.edu/dpService/dpPurlService/purl/FI15050324/00001 |y Click here for full text
992 04 |a http://dpanther.fiu.edu/sobek/content/FI/15/05/03/24/00001/FI15050324_thm.jpg
997        |a Sea Level Rise


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