Climate Sensitivity Estimated from Temperature Reconstructions of the Last Glacial Maximum
Permanent Link:

Material Information

Title:
Climate Sensitivity Estimated from Temperature Reconstructions of the Last Glacial Maximum
Series Title:
Science Magazine Volume 334
Creator:
Andreas Schmittner
Nathan M. Urban
Jeremy D. Shakun
Natalie M. Mahowald
Peter U. Clark
Patrick J. Bartlein
Alan C. Mix
Antoni Rosell Mele
Affiliation:
Oregon State University -- College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences
Princeton University -- Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Harvard University -- Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences
Cornell University -- Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
Oregon State University -- Department of Geosciences
Oregon State University -- Department of Geosciences
University of Oregon -- Department of Geography
Autonomous University of Barcelona -- Institucio Catalan de Recerca
Publisher:
American Association for the Advancement of Science
Publication Date:
Language:
English

Notes

Abstract:
Assessing the impact of future anthropogenic carbon emissions is currently impeded by uncertainties in our knowledge of equilibrium climate sensitivity to atmospheric carbon dioxide doubling. Previous studies suggest 3 kelvin (K) as the best estimate, 2 to 4.5 K as the 66% probability range, and nonzero probabilities for much higher values, the latter implying a small chance of high-impact climate changes that would be difficult to avoid. Here, combining extensive sea and land surface temperature reconstructions from the Last Glacial Maximum with climate model simulations, we estimate a lower median (2.3 K) and reduced uncertainty (1.7 to 2.6 K as the 66% probability range, which can be widened using alternate assumptions or data subsets). Assuming that paleoclimatic constraints apply to the future, as predicted by our model, these results imply a lower probability of imminent extreme climatic change than previously thought.

Record Information

Source Institution:
Florida International University
Rights Management:
Please contact the owning institution for licensing and permissions. It is the user's responsibility to ensure use does not violate any third party rights.

dpSobek Membership

Aggregations:
Sea Level Rise