| 008 |
|
150518n^^^^^^^^xx^||||^o^^^^^|||^u^eng^d |
| 245 |
00 |
|a Climate Sensitivity Estimated from Temperature Reconstructions of the Last Glacial Maximum |h [electronic resource]. |
| 260 |
|
|a [S.l.] : |b American Association for the Advancement of Science, |c 2011-12-09. |
| 490 |
|
|a Science Magazine Volume 334. |
| 506 |
|
|a Please contact the owning institution for licensing and permissions. It is the user's responsibility to ensure use does not violate any third party rights. |
| 520 |
3 |
|a Assessing the impact of future anthropogenic carbon emissions is currently impeded by
uncertainties in our knowledge of equilibrium climate sensitivity to atmospheric carbon dioxide
doubling. Previous studies suggest 3 kelvin (K) as the best estimate, 2 to 4.5 K as the 66% probability
range, and nonzero probabilities for much higher values, the latter implying a small chance of
high-impact climate changes that would be difficult to avoid. Here, combining extensive sea and
land surface temperature reconstructions from the Last Glacial Maximum with climate model
simulations, we estimate a lower median (2.3 K) and reduced uncertainty (1.7 to 2.6 K as the 66%
probability range, which can be widened using alternate assumptions or data subsets). Assuming
that paleoclimatic constraints apply to the future, as predicted by our model, these results imply
a lower probability of imminent extreme climatic change than previously thought. |
| 533 |
|
|a Electronic reproduction. |c Florida International University, |d 2015. |f (dpSobek) |n Mode of access: World Wide Web. |n System requirements: Internet connectivity; Web browser software. |
| 852 |
|
|a dpSobek |c Sea Level Rise |
| 856 |
40 |
|u http://dpanther.fiu.edu/dpService/dpPurlService/purl/FI15050321/00001 |y Click here for full text |
| 992 |
04 |
|a http://dpanther.fiu.edu/sobek/content/FI/15/05/03/21/00001/FI15050321_thm.jpg |
