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- Permanent Link:
- http://dpanther.fiu.edu/dpService/dpPurlService/purl/FI15042650/00001
Notes
- Abstract:
- Southwest Florida is currently experiencing climate change. The natural setting of southwest Florida coupled with extensive overinvestment in the areas closest to the coast have placed the region at the forefront of geographic areas that are among the first to suffer the negative effects of a changing climate. More severe tropical storms and hurricanes with increased wind speeds and storm surges have already severely damaged both coastal and interior communities of southwest Florida. Significant losses of mature mangrove forest, water quality degradation, and barrier island geomorphic changes have already occurred. Longer, more severe dry season droughts coupled with shorter duration wet seasons consisting of higher volume precipitation have generated a pattern of drought and flood impacting both natural and man-made ecosystems. Even in the most probable, lowest impact future climate change scenario predictions, the future for southwest Florida will include increased climate instability; wetter wet seasons; drier dry seasons; more extreme hot and cold events; increased coastal erosion; continuous sea level rise; shifts in fauna and flora with reductions in temperate species and expansions of tropical invasive exotics; increasing occurrence of tropical diseases in plants, wildlife and humans; destabilization of aquatic food webs including increased harmful algae blooms; increasing strains upon and costs in infrastructure; and increased uncertainty concerning variable risk assessment with uncertain actuarial futures. Maintaining the status quo in the management of estuarine ecosystems in the face of such likely changes would result in substantial losses of ecosystem services and economic values as climate change progresses. In the absence of effective avoidance, mitigation, minimization and adaptation, climate-related failures will result in greater difficulty in addressing the priority problems identified in the Charlotte Harbor National Estuary Program (CHNEP) Comprehensive Conservation and Management Plan (CCMP): hydrologic alteration, water quality degradation, fish and wildlife habitat loss, and stewardship gaps. This study examines the current climate and ongoing climate change in southwest Florida along with five future scenarios of climate change into the year 2200. These scenarios include:
1) a condition that involves a future in which mitigative actions are undertaken to reduce the human influence on climate change (Stanton and Ackerman 2007),
2) a 90% probable future predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2007b),
3) a 50% probable future predicted by IPCC,
4) a 5% probable future predicted by the IPCC, and
5) a ―very worst‖ future in which no actions are taken to address climate change (Stanton and Ackerman 2007). This fifth scenario also corresponds with some of the other worst case scenarios postulated by scientists who think the IPCC estimations are under-estimated (USEPA CRE 2008).
This report also assesses significant potential climate changes in air and water and the effects of those changes on climate stability, sea level, hydrology, geomorphology, natural habitats and species, land use changes, economy, human health, human infrastructure, and variable risk projections, in southwest Florida. Among the consequences of climate change that threaten estuarine ecosystem services, the most serious involve interactions between climate-dependent processes and human responses to those climate changes. Depending upon the method of prioritization utilized, some climate change effects will be experienced and can be compensated for in the relative near-term. Other effects with longer timelines will be more costly in habitat impact or human economic terms. There are a number of planning actions that, if undertaken now, could significantly reduce negative climate change effects and their costs in the future while providing positive environmental and financial benefits in the near term. There are crucial areas where adaptation planning and implementation will be needed in order to avoid, minimize and mitigate the anticipated effects to the natural and man-altered areas of southwest Florida. Some effects, such as air temperature and water temperature increases, will be experienced throughout the region. Others, such as sea level rise and habitat shifts, will occur in specific geographic and clinal locations. In the course of the project 246 climate change management adaptations were identified (Beever et al. 2009) that could be utilized to address the various vulnerabilities identified for the region. Future adaptation plans will identify the management measures best suited for each geographic location. Monitoring of the effects and results of climate changes will be necessary to assess when and where adaptive management needs to be and should be applied. A critical goal of this monitoring is to establish and follow indicators that signal approach toward an ecosystem threshold that, once passed, puts the system into an alternative state from which conversion back is difficult to impossible. The likely effects of climate change, particularly tropical storms, drought and sea level rise, on southwest Florida ecosystems and infrastructure development are too great for policymakers, property owners, and the public-at-large to stand by and wait for greater evidence before considering strategies for adaptation. It is essential to plan and act now to avoid, mitigate, minimize, and adapt to the negative effects of climate change, and to examine the possibilities of providing benefits to human and natural systems by adapting to the changing planet.
Record Information
- Source Institution:
- Florida International University
- Rights Management:
- Please contact the owning institution for licensing and permissions. It is the user's responsibility to ensure use does not violate any third party rights.
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