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|a Arctic sea-ice evolution as modeled by Max Planck Institute for Meteorology's Earth system model |h [electronic resource] |y English. |
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|a [S.l.] : |b American Geophysical Union, |c 2013. |
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|a Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems Volume 5 |y English. |
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|a Please contact the owning institution for licensing and permissions. It is the user's responsibility to ensure use does not violate any third party rights. |
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|a We describe the evolution of Arctic sea ice as modeled by the Max Planck Institute
for Meteorology’s Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). The modeled spatial distribution
and interannual variability of the sea-ice cover agree well with satellite observations
and are improved relative to the model’s predecessor ECHAM5/MPIOM. An evaluation
of modeled sea-ice coverage based on sea-ice area gives, however, conflicting
results compared to an evaluation based on sea-ice extent and is additionally hindered
by uncertainties in the observational record. Simulated trends in sea-ice coverage for
the satellite period range from more strongly negative than observed to positive. The
observed evolution of Arctic sea ice is incompatible with modeled internal variability
and probably caused by external forcing. Simulated drift patterns agree well with
observations, but simulated drift speed is generally too high. Simulated sea-ice volume
agrees well with volume estimates of the PIOMAS reanalysis for the past few years.
However, a preceding Arctic wide decrease in sea-ice volume starts much earlier in
MPI-ESM than in PIOMAS. Analyzing this behavior in MPI-ESM’s ocean model
MPIOM, we find that the modeled volume trend depends crucially on the specific
choice of atmospheric reanalysis forcing, which casts some doubt on the reliability of
estimates of volume trends. In our CMIP5 scenario simulations, we find a substantial
delay in sea-ice response to increasing CO2 concentration; a seasonally ice-free Arctic
can result for a CO2 concentration of around 500 ppm. Simulated winter sea-ice coverage
drops rapidly to near ice-free conditions once the mean Arctic winter temperature
exceeds -5 degree celsius. |
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|a Electronic reproduction. |c Florida International University, |d 2015. |f (dpSobek) |n Mode of access: World Wide Web. |n System requirements: Internet connectivity; Web browser software. |
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|a Haumann, F. Alexander. |
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|a dpSobek |c Sea Level Rise |
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|u http://dpanther.fiu.edu/dpService/dpPurlService/purl/FI15062103/00001 |y Click here for full text |
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|a http://dpanther.fiu.edu/sobek/content/FI/15/06/21/03/00001/FI15062103_thm.jpg |
