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|a Vast costs of Arctic change |h [electronic resource]. |
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|a [S.l.] : |b Macmillan Publishers Limited, |c 2013-07-25. |
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|a Nature Magazine Volume 499. |
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|a Please contact the owning institution for licensing and permissions. It is the user's responsibility to ensure use does not violate any third party rights. |
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|a Unlike the loss of sea ice, the vulnerability
of polar bears and the rising
human population, the economic
impacts of a warming Arctic are being
ignored.
Most economic discussion so far assumes
that opening up the region will be beneficial.
The Arctic is thought to be home to 30% of
the world’s undiscovered gas and 13% of its
undiscovered oil, and new polar shipping
routes would increase regional trade1,2. The
insurance market Lloyd’s of London estimates
that investment in the Arctic could
reach US$100 billion within ten years3.
The costliness of environmental damage
from development is recognized by some,
such as Lloyd’s3 and the French oil giant
Total, and the dangers of Arctic oil spills are
the subject of a current panel investigation
by the US National Research Council. What
is missing from the equation is a worldwide
perspective on Arctic change. Economic
modelling of the resulting impacts on the
world’s climate, in particular, has been scant.
We calculate that the costs of a melting
Arctic will be huge, because the region is
pivotal to the functioning of Earth systems
such as oceans and the climate. The release
of methane from thawing permafrost
beneath the East Siberian Sea, off northern
Russia, alone comes with an average global
price tag of $60 trillion in the absence of
mitigating action — a figure comparable to
the size of the world economy in 2012 (about
$70 trillion). The total cost of Arctic change
will be much higher. Much of the cost will be borne by developing
countries, which will face extreme
weather, poorer health and lower agricultural production as Arctic warming affects climate. All nations will be affected, not just those in the far north, and all should be concerned about changes occurring in this region. More modelling is needed to understand which regions and parts of the world economy will be most vulnerable. |
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|a Electronic reproduction. |c Florida International University, |d 2015. |f (dpSobek) |n Mode of access: World Wide Web. |n System requirements: Internet connectivity; Web browser software. |
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|t Vast costs of Arctic change |
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|a dpSobek |c Sea Level Rise |
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|u http://dpanther.fiu.edu/dpService/dpPurlService/purl/FI15062066/00001 |y Click here for full text |
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|3 FULL TEXT- Vast costs of Arctic change |u https://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v499/n7459/full/499401a.html |y Vast costs of Arctic change |
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|a http://dpanther.fiu.edu/sobek/content/FI/15/06/20/66/00001/FI15062066_thm.jpg |
