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|a An expert judgement assessment of future sea level rise from the ice sheets |h [electronic resource] |y English. |
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|a [S.l.] : |b Macmillan Publishers Limited, |c 2013-04. |
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|a Nature Climate Change Volume 3. |
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|a Please contact the owning institution for licensing and permissions. It is the user's responsibility to ensure use does not violate any third party rights. |
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|a A major gap in predictive capability concerning the future evolution of the ice sheets was identified in the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. As a consequence, it has been suggested that the AR4 estimates of future sea-level rise from this source may have been underestimated. Various approaches for addressing this
problem have been tried, including semi-empirical models and conceptual studies. Here, we report a formalized pooling of expert views on uncertainties in future ice-sheet contributions using a structured elicitation approach.We find that the median estimate of such contributions is 29 cm—substantially larger than in the AR4—while the upper 95th percentile value is 84 cm,
implying a conceivable risk of a sea-level rise of greater than a metre by 2100. On the critical question of whether recent ice-sheet behaviour is due to variability in the ice sheet–climate system or reflects a long-term trend, expert opinion is shown to be both very uncertain and undecided. |
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|a Electronic reproduction. |c Florida International University, |d 2015. |f (dpSobek) |n Mode of access: World Wide Web. |n System requirements: Internet connectivity; Web browser software. |
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|t An expert judgement assessment of future sea level rise from the ice sheets |
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|a dpSobek |c Sea Level Rise |
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|u http://dpanther.fiu.edu/dpService/dpPurlService/purl/FI15062043/00001 |y Click here for full text |
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|3 Host material |u http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v3/n4/full/nclimate1778.html |y An expert judgement assessment of future sea level rise from the ice sheets |
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|a http://dpanther.fiu.edu/sobek/content/FI/15/06/20/43/00001/FI15062043_thm.jpg |
