| 008 |
|
150717n^^^^^^^^xx^||||^o^^^^^|||^u^eng^d |
| 245 |
00 |
|a Management of Uncertainty in Predicting Climate-Change Impacts on Beaches |h [electronic resource]. |
| 490 |
|
|a Journal of Coastal Research Volume 22 Number 1. |
| 506 |
|
|a Please contact the owning institution for licensing and permissions. It is the user's responsibility to ensure use does not violate any third party rights. |
| 520 |
3 |
|a Management of uncertainty in model predictions of long-term coastal change begins by admitting uncertainty. In the
case of geometric mass-balance models, the first step is to relax restrictive assumptions to allow for open sediment
budgets, time-dependent morphology, effects of mixed sediment sizes, and variable resistance in substrate material.
These refinements introduce new uncertainty regarding the choice of parameter values. The next step is to actively
manage uncertainty using techniques readily available from information science. The final step requires a shift in
coastal management culture to accept decision making based on risk-management protocols.
Stochastic simulation was applied to manage predictive uncertainty in cases involving complications resulting from
open sediment budgets, rock reefs, and seawalls. In these examples, the respective effects caused between 20% and
60% difference from conventional predictions based solely on equilibrium assumptions and substrates comprised entirely
of sand.
Stochastic simulation makes it possible to establish confidence limits and determine the statistical significance of
differences caused by varying effects such as substrate resistance and shoreface geometry. It also enables the likelihood
of critical impacts to be specified in terms of probability. Moreover, probabilistic forecasts provide a transparent
basis for coastal management decisions by revealing the consequences if quantitative estimates prove to be wrong. |
| 533 |
|
|a Electronic reproduction. |c Florida International University, |d 2015. |f (dpSobek) |n Mode of access: World Wide Web. |n System requirements: Internet connectivity; Web browser software. |
| 773 |
0 |
|t Management of Uncertainty in Predicting Climate-Change Impacts on Beaches |
| 852 |
|
|a dpSobek |c Sea Level Rise |
| 856 |
40 |
|u http://dpanther.fiu.edu/dpService/dpPurlService/purl/FI15062007/00001 |y Click here for full text |
| 856 |
42 |
|3 Host material |u http://www.bioone.org/doi/abs/10.2112/05A-0018.1?journalCode=coas |y Management of Uncertainty in Predicting Climate-Change Impacts on Beaches |
| 992 |
04 |
|a http://dpanther.fiu.edu/sobek/content/FI/15/06/20/07/00001/FI15062007thm.jpg |
