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|a Relationship between sea level and climate forcing by CO2 on geological timescales |h [electronic resource]. |
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|a [S.l.] : |b National Academy of Sciences, |c 2013-01-22. |
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|a Proceedings of the National Academy of Science Volume 100 Number 4. |
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|a Please contact the owning institution for licensing and permissions. It is the user's responsibility to ensure use does not violate any third party rights. |
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|a On 10 3- to 10 6-year timescales, global sea level is determined
largely by the volume of ice stored on land, which in turn largely
reflects the thermal state of the Earth system. Here we use observations
from five well-studied time slices covering the last 40 My
to identify a well-defined and clearly sigmoidal relationship between
atmospheric CO2 and sea level on geological (near-equilibrium)
timescales. This strongly supports the dominant role of CO2
in determining Earth’s climate on these timescales and suggests
that other variables that influence long-term global climate (e.g.,
topography, ocean circulation) play a secondary role. The relationship
between CO2 and sea level we describe portrays the “likely”
(68% probability) long-term sea-level response after Earth system
adjustment over many centuries. Because it appears largely independent
of other boundary condition changes, it also may provide
useful long-range predictions of future sea level. For instance,
with CO2 stabilized at 400–450 ppm (as required for the frequently
quoted “acceptable warming” of 2 °C), or even at AD 2011 levels of
392 ppm, we infer a likely (68% confidence) long-term sea-level
rise of more than 9 m above the present. Therefore, our results
imply that to avoid significantly elevated sea level in the long
term, atmospheric CO2 should be reduced to levels similar to those
of preindustrial times. |
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|a Electronic reproduction. |c Florida International University, |d 2015. |f (dpSobek) |n Mode of access: World Wide Web. |n System requirements: Internet connectivity; Web browser software. |
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|t Relationship between sea level and climate forcing by CO2 on geological timescales |
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|a dpSobek |c Sea Level Rise |
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|u http://dpanther.fiu.edu/dpService/dpPurlService/purl/FI15061973/00001 |y Click here for full text |
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|3 Host material |u http://www.pnas.org/content/110/4/1209.full |y Relationship between sea level and climate forcing by CO2 on geological timescales |
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|a http://dpanther.fiu.edu/sobek/content/FI/15/06/19/73/00001/FI15061973thm.jpg |
