Economic Analysis of Sea Level Rise
Permanent Link:

Material Information

Title:
Economic Analysis of Sea Level Rise Methods and Results
Creator:
Gibbs, Michael J.
Publication Date:
Language:
English

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Climate change ( lcsh )
Sea level rise ( lcsh )
Coastal management ( lcsh )

Notes

Abstract:
The direct physical effects of sea level rise will have a major influence on the use of the coastal zone throughout the country. An examination of these physical effects is but a first step in estimating the impacts of sea level rise on coastal communities and society. The importance of these impacts will depend on how we prepare for them. Given our current understanding of the potential for future sea level rise and the opportunities to improve our understanding, we should identify the course of action that would best prepare us for the future. The choice of which actions to take (such as increasing research, constructing protective structures, or altering development patterns) requires balancing uncertain risks and costs. Because many of the actions to prepare for future sea level rise must; be taken collectively, extensive analysis and political debate on the relative importance of the risks and costs should precede decisions of whether to undertake certain actions. Additionally, individuals must decide for themselves whether the potential for future sea level rise should alter their current and future private activities (such as purchasing oceanfront property). The objective of the project summarized here is to estimate what is at stake in these public and private decisions. Methods were developed and implemented to answer two questions. First, if we take no special actions to prepare for sea level rise, what is the impact on society if it in fact occurs? And second, by how much can we reduce the impact of sea level rise if we take actions to prepare for it? If the impact is large but we can reduce it substantially through preparation, then the decision regarding how best to prepare is an important one. If the impact is small or preparation has little benefit, then the decision is not so important. The analyses and results presented below conclude that both the impacts of sea level rise and the value of preparation are large indeed. Based on the analyses of the physical impacts of sea level rise presented in the previous chapters, the economic impact of sea level rise on Charleston and Galveston is estimated to be hundreds of millions, perhaps billions, of dollars. Preparing for future sea level rise could reduce these impacts by over 60 percent in some cases. It appears, therefore, that the stakes are high. Like the other parts of the project described in this book, the analysis presented in this chapter is a first attempt to examine a relatively unstudied phenomenon. The analysis presented here must be refined and extended in a variety of ways. The estimated impacts of sea level rise reported below are conservative because quantitative estimates could not be made for several effects and the set of preparation actions considered is limited. More refined analyses of selected individual and public actions would improve the precision of the estimates. Nevertheless, the results serve as a first step toward a better understanding of the potential economic and societal impacts of sea level rise. ( English )

Record Information

Source Institution:
Florida International University
Rights Management:
Please contact the owning institution for licensing and permissions. It is the user's responsibility to ensure use does not violate any third party rights.

dpSobek Membership

Aggregations:
Sea Level Rise