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|a Coastal flood damage and adaptation costs under 21st century sea-level rise |h [electronic resource]. |
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|a [S.l.] : |b National Academy of Sciences, |c 2014. |
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|a Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. |
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|a Please contact the owning institution for licensing and permissions. It is the user's responsibility to ensure use does not violate any third party rights. |
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|a Coastal flood damage and adaptation costs under 21st century
sea-level rise are assessed on a global scale taking into account
a wide range of uncertainties in continental topography data,
population data, protection strategies, socioeconomic development
and sea-level rise. Uncertainty in global mean and regional
sea level was derived from four different climate models from the
Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5, each combined
with three land-ice scenarios based on the published range of
contributions from ice sheets and glaciers. Without adaptation,
0.2–4.6% of global population is expected to be flooded annually
in 2100 under 25–123 cm of global mean sea-level rise, with
expected annual losses of 0.3–9.3% of global gross domestic product.
Damages of this magnitude are very unlikely to be tolerated
by society and adaptation will be widespread. The global costs of
protecting the coast with dikes are significant with annual investment
and maintenance costs of US$ 12–71 billion in 2100, but
much smaller than the global cost of avoided damages even without
accounting for indirect costs of damage to regional production
supply. Flood damages by the end of this century are much more
sensitive to the applied protection strategy than to variations in
climate and socioeconomic scenarios as well as in physical data
sources (topography and climate model). Our results emphasize
the central role of long-term coastal adaptation strategies. These
should also take into account that protecting large parts of the
developed coast increases the risk of catastrophic consequences in
the case of defense failure. |
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|a Electronic reproduction. |c Florida International University, |d 2015. |f (dpSobek) |n Mode of access: World Wide Web. |n System requirements: Internet connectivity; Web browser software. |
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|a Vafeidis, Athanasios T.. |
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|a Nicholls, Robert James. |
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|t Coastal flood damage and adaptation costs under 21st century sea-level rise |
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|a dpSobek |c Sea Level Rise |
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|u http://dpanther.fiu.edu/dpService/dpPurlService/purl/FI15061935/00001 |y Click here for full text |
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|3 Host material |u http://www.pnas.org/content/111/9/3292.abstract |y Coastal flood damage and adaptation costs under 21st century sea-level rise |
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|a http://dpanther.fiu.edu/sobek/content/FI/15/06/19/35/00001/FI15061935_thm.jpg |
