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|a A simple technique for estimating an allowance for uncertain sea-level rise |h [electronic resource]. |
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|a [S.l.] : |b Springer Science+Business Media B.V., |c 2011. |
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|a Please contact the owning institution for licensing and permissions. It is the user's responsibility to ensure use does not violate any third party rights. |
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|a Projections of climate change are inherently uncertain, leading to considerable
debate over suitable allowances for future changes such as sea-level rise (an
‘allowance’ is, in this context, the amount by which something, such as the height
of coastal infrastructure, needs to be altered to cope with climate change). Words
such as ‘plausible’ and ‘high-end’ abound, with little objective or statistically valid
support. It is firstly shown that, in cases in which extreme events are modified by an
uncertain change in the average (e.g. flooding caused by a rise in mean sea level),
it is preferable to base future allowances on estimates of the expected frequency
of exceedances rather than on the probability of at least one exceedance. A simple
method of determining a future sea-level rise allowance is then derived, based on the
projected rise in mean sea level and its uncertainty, and on the variability of present
tides and storm surges (‘storm tides’). The method preserves the expected frequency
of flooding events under a given projection of sea-level rise. It is assumed that the
statistics of storm tides relative to mean sea level are unchanged. The method is
demonstrated using the GESLA (Global Extreme Sea-Level Analysis) data set of
roughly hourly sea levels, covering 198 sites over much of the globe. Two possible
projections of sea-level rise are assumed for the 21st century: one based on the Third
and Fourth Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
and a larger one based on research since the Fourth Assessment Report. |
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|a Electronic reproduction. |c Florida International University, |d 2015. |f (dpSobek) |n Mode of access: World Wide Web. |n System requirements: Internet connectivity; Web browser software. |
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|t A simple technique for estimating an allowance for uncertain sea-level rise |
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|a dpSobek |c Sea Level Rise |
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|u http://dpanther.fiu.edu/dpService/dpPurlService/purl/FI15061923/00001 |y Click here for full text |
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|3 Host material |u http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-011-0332-1#page-1 |y A simple technique for estimating an allowance for uncertain sea-level rise |
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|a http://dpanther.fiu.edu/sobek/content/FI/15/06/19/23/00001/FI15061923_thm.jpg |
