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|a Nonlinear trends and multiyear cycles in sea level records |h [electronic resource]. |
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|a [S.l.] : |b American Geophysical Union, |c 2006. |
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|a Journal of Geophysical Research, Volume 111. |
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|a Please contact the owning institution for licensing and permissions. It is the user's responsibility to ensure use does not violate any third party rights. |
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|a We analyze the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) database of sea
level time series using a method based on Monte Carlo Singular Spectrum Analysis
(MC-SSA). We remove 2–30 year quasi-periodic oscillations and determine the nonlinear
long-term trends for 12 large ocean regions. Our global sea level trend estimate of
2.4 ± 1.0 mm/yr for the period from 1993 to 2000 is comparable with the 2.6 ± 0.7 mm/yr
sea level rise calculated from TOPEX/Poseidon altimeter measurements. However, we
show that over the last 100 years the rate of 2.5 ± 1.0 mm/yr occurred between 1920 and
1945, is likely to be as large as the 1990s, and resulted in a mean sea level rise of 48 mm.We
evaluate errors in sea level using two independent approaches, the robust bi-weight
mean and variance, and a novel ‘‘virtual station’’ approach that utilizes geographic locations
of stations. Results suggest that a region cannot be adequately represented by a simple mean
curve with standard error, assuming all stations are independent, as multiyear cycles
within regions are very significant. Additionally, much of the between-region mismatch
errors are due to multiyear cycles in the global sea level that limit the ability of simple means
to capture sea level accurately. We demonstrate that variability in sea level records over
periods 2–30 years has increased during the past 50 years in most ocean basins. |
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|a Electronic reproduction. |c Florida International University, |d 2015. |f (dpSobek) |n Mode of access: World Wide Web. |n System requirements: Internet connectivity; Web browser software. |
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|t Nonlinear trends and multiyear cycles in sea level records |
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|a dpSobek |c Sea Level Rise |
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|u http://dpanther.fiu.edu/dpService/dpPurlService/purl/FI15061917/00001 |y Click here for full text |
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|3 Host material |u http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2005JC003229/pdf |y Nonlinear trends and multiyear cycles in sea level records |
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|a http://dpanther.fiu.edu/sobek/content/FI/15/06/19/17/00001/FI15061917thm.jpg |
