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|a Sea level projections to AD2500 with a new generation of climate change scenarios |h [electronic resource]. |
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|a [S.l.] : |b Elsevier, |c 2012. |
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|a Global and Planetary Change. |
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|a Please contact the owning institution for licensing and permissions. It is the user's responsibility to ensure use does not violate any third party rights. |
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|a Sea level rise over the coming centuries is perhaps the most damaging side of rising temperature (Anthoff et
al., 2009). The economic costs and social consequences of coastal flooding and forced migration will probably
be one of the dominant impacts of global warming (Sugiyama et al., 2008). To date, however, few studies
(Nicholls et al., 2008; Anthoff et al., 2009) on infrastructure and socio-economic planning include provision
for multi-century and multi-metre rises in mean sea level. Here we use a physically plausible sea level
model constrained by observations, and forced with four new Representative Concentration Pathways
(RCP) radiative forcing scenarios (Moss et al., 2010) to project median sea level rises of 0.57 for the lowest
forcing and 1.10 m for the highest forcing by 2100 which rise to 1.84 and 5.49 m respectively by 2500. Sea
level will continue to rise for several centuries even after stabilisation of radiative forcing with most of the
rise after 2100 due to the long response time of sea level. The rate of sea level rise would be positive for
centuries, requiring 200–400 years to drop to the 1.8 mm/yr 20th century average, except for the RCP3PD
which would rely on geoengineering. |
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|a Electronic reproduction. |c Florida International University, |d 2015. |f (dpSobek) |n Mode of access: World Wide Web. |n System requirements: Internet connectivity; Web browser software. |
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|t Sea level projections to AD2500 with a new generation of climate change scenarios |
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|a dpSobek |c Sea Level Rise |
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|u http://dpanther.fiu.edu/dpService/dpPurlService/purl/FI15061914/00001 |y Click here for full text |
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|3 Host material |u http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818111001469 |y Sea level projections to AD2500 with a new generation of climate change scenarios |
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|a http://dpanther.fiu.edu/sobek/content/FI/15/06/19/14/00001/FI15061914thm.jpg |
