Simplified method for scenario-based risk assessment adaptation planning in the coastal zone
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Material Information

Title:
Simplified method for scenario-based risk assessment adaptation planning in the coastal zone
Series Title:
Climatic Change
Creator:
Kirshen, Paul
Merill, Samuel
Slovinsky, Peter
Richardson, Norman
Publisher:
Springer
Publication Date:
Language:
English

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Coastal management ( lcsh )
Risk assessment ( lcsh )
Sea level rise ( lcsh )
Flooding ( lcsh )

Notes

Abstract:
The development of successful coastal adaptation strategies for both the built and natural environments requires combining scenarios of climate change and socio-economic conditions, and risk assessment. Such planning needs to consider the adaptation costs and residual damages over time that may occur given a range of possible storm conditions for any given sea level rise scenario. Using the metric of the expected value of annual adaptation costs and residual damages, or another metric that can be related to the elevation of flooding, a simplified method to carry this out is presented. The approach relies upon developing damageflooding depth probability exceedance curves for various scenarios over a given planning period and determining the areas under the curves. While the approach does have limitations, it is less complex to implement than using Monte Carlo simulation approaches and may be more intuitive to decision makers. A case study in Maine, USA is carried out to illustrate the method. ( English )

Record Information

Source Institution:
Florida International University
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Aggregations:
Sea Level Rise