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|a Probabilistic assessment of sea level during the last interglacial stage |h [electronic resource]. |
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|a [S.l.] : |b Macmillan Publishers Limited, |c 2009. |
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|a Nature Magazine Volume 462. |
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|a Please contact the owning institution for licensing and permissions. It is the user's responsibility to ensure use does not violate any third party rights. |
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|a With polar temperatures,3–5 uC warmer than today, the last interglacial stage (,125 kyr ago) serves as a partial analogue
for 1–2 uC global warming scenarios. Geological records from several sites indicate that local sea levels during the last
interglacial were higher than today, but because local sea levels differ from global sea level, accurately reconstructing past
global sea level requires an integrated analysis of globally distributed data sets. Here we present an extensive compilation of
local sea level indicators and a statistical approach for estimating global sea level, local sea levels, ice sheet volumes and their
associated uncertainties. We find a 95% probability that global sea level peaked at least 6.6m higher than today during the
last interglacial; it is likely (67% probability) to have exceeded 8.0m but is unlikely (33% probability) to have exceeded
9.4 m. When global sea level was close to its current level ($210 m), the millennial average rate of global sea level rise is
very likely to have exceeded 5.6mkyr21 but is unlikely to have exceeded 9.2mkyr21. Our analysis extends previous last
interglacial sea level studies by integrating literature observations within a probabilistic framework that accounts for the
physics of sea level change. The results highlight the long-term vulnerability of ice sheets to even relatively low levels of
sustained global warming. |
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|a Electronic reproduction. |c Florida International University, |d 2015. |f (dpSobek) |n Mode of access: World Wide Web. |n System requirements: Internet connectivity; Web browser software. |
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|t Probabilistic assessment of sea level during the last interglacial stage |
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|a dpSobek |c Sea Level Rise |
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|u http://dpanther.fiu.edu/dpService/dpPurlService/purl/FI15061902/00001 |y Click here for full text |
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|3 Host material |u http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v462/n7275/full/nature08686.html |y Probabilistic assessment of sea level during the last interglacial stage |
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|a http://dpanther.fiu.edu/sobek/content/FI/15/06/19/02/00001/FI15061902thm.jpg |
