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- Permanent Link:
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Notes
- Abstract:
- This chapter describes the geomorphic effects of projected sea level rise on low-lying coastal
landforms along southeast Galveston Bay, Texas, for a range of Projected sea level rise rates (baseline, low,
medium and high) at particular time periods (2025 and 2075). The objective is to determine the coastal
changes in response to various assumed sea level increases by these particular dates. Two categories of
physical response are addressed: shoreline changes representing landward displacement of the land/water
interface and changes in storm surge levels and inland
inundation as a result of the projected rates of sea level rise. Groundwater changes, resulting from saltwater
intrusion coastal aquifers, were originally considered (Leatherman et al., 1983), but sea level rise was found
to result in minimal effects compared to those of cultural alterations. For instance, the groundwater supplies
in the Galveston area have already been polluted or overexploited. Also, land surface subsidence, largely
resulting from overpumping, has been so pronounced that legislation has recently been enacted prohibiting
the further development of groundwater resources (Thompson, 1982).
A section of Galveston Island and Bay was selected for this pilot study (see Figure 5-1). This
portion of the Gulf coastal plain is quite low and gently seaward. Therefore, a slight rise in sea level would
result in, significant horizontal displacement of the shoreline and storm surge envelope. Other selection
criteria included microtidal environment, major Gulf Coast estuary, highly developed population centers and
industrial complexes at Texas City and north Galveston Island, availability of the National Weather Service
storm surge model SLOSH (Sea, Lake andOverland Surges from Hurricanes), and information on historical
erosional trends and subsidence data.
Three sea level rise scenarios were developed (see Chapter 3); eight rise/year combinations were
selected from the projected sea level rise curves for this analysis (see Table 5-1). The table indicates, for
example, that absent any acceleration in sea level rise (the baseline scenario), by 2025 sea level will have
risen by 13.7 cm (0.5 ft). In the medium sea level rise scenario, sea level will have risen by 48.4 cm (1.6
ft) in 2025. Although subsidence has been a major problem in Texas City, the estimated rate of future
subsidence for this area is insignificant, with Galveston Island being essentially stable (Thompson, 1982).
As indicated in Figure 5-1, the Galveston study area was divided into several subareas. The results
of this analysis are given in tables for all subareas. Graphic representations are presented for illustrative
purposes in order to conserve space. ( English )
Record Information
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- Florida International University
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