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|a The multimillennial sea-level commitment of global warming |h [electronic resource]. |
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|a [S.l.] : |b National Academy of Sciences, |c 2013. |
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|a Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. |
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|a Please contact the owning institution for licensing and permissions. It is the user's responsibility to ensure use does not violate any third party rights. |
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|a Global mean sea level has been steadily rising over the last
century, is projected to increase by the end of this century, and
will continue to rise beyond the year 2100 unless the current
global mean temperature trend is reversed. Inertia in the climate
and global carbon system, however, causes the global mean
temperature to decline slowly even after greenhouse gas emissions
have ceased, raising the question of how much sea-level
commitment is expected for different levels of global mean
temperature increase above preindustrial levels. Although sealevel
rise over the last century has been dominated by ocean
warming and loss of glaciers, the sensitivity suggested from
records of past sea levels indicates important contributions should
also be expected from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets.
Uncertainties in the paleo-reconstructions, however, necessitate
additional strategies to better constrain the sea-level commitment.
Here we combine paleo-evidence with simulations from physical
models to estimate the future sea-level commitment on a multimillennial
time scale and compute associated regional sea-level
patterns. Oceanic thermal expansion and the Antarctic Ice Sheet
contribute quasi-linearly, with 0.4 m °C−1 and 1.2 m °C−1 of warming,
respectively. The saturation of the contribution from glaciers
is overcompensated by the nonlinear response of the Greenland
Ice Sheet. As a consequence we are committed to a sea-level rise of
approximately 2.3 m °C−1 within the next 2,000 y. Considering the
lifetime of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, this imposes the
need for fundamental adaptation strategies on multicentennial
time scales. |
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|a Electronic reproduction. |c Florida International University, |d 2015. |f (dpSobek) |n Mode of access: World Wide Web. |n System requirements: Internet connectivity; Web browser software. |
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|t The multimillennial sea-level commitment of global warming |
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|a dpSobek |c Sea Level Rise |
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|u http://dpanther.fiu.edu/dpService/dpPurlService/purl/FI15061891/00001 |y Click here for full text |
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|3 Host material |u http://www.pnas.org/content/110/34/13745.full.pdf |y The multimillennial sea-level commitment of global warming |
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|a http://dpanther.fiu.edu/sobek/content/FI/15/06/18/91/00001/FI15061891thm.jpg |
