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|a 10.1073/pnas.092704599 |2 DOI |
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|a Twentieth century sea level |h [electronic resource] |b An enigma. |
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|a Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Volume 99 Number 10. |
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|a Please contact the owning institution for licensing and permissions. It is the user's responsibility to ensure use does not violate any third party rights. |
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|a Changes in sea level (relative to the moving crust) are associated
with changes in ocean volume (mostly thermal expansion) and
in ocean mass (melting and continental storage): !(t) "!steric(t) #
!eustatic(t). Recent compilations of global ocean temperatures by
Levitus and coworkers are in accord with coupled ocean!atmosphere
modeling of greenhouse warming; they yield an increase
in 20th century ocean heat content by 2 $ 1023 J (compared
to 0.1 $ 1023 J of atmospheric storage), which corresponds
to !greenhouse(2000) " 3 cm. The greenhouse-related rate is
accelerating, with a present value ˙!greenhouse(2000) ! 6 cm!
century. Tide records going back to the 19th century show no
measurable acceleration throughout the late 19th and first half
of the 20th century; we take ˙!historic " 18 cm!century. The
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change attributes about 6
cm!century to melting and other eustatic processes, leaving a
residual of 12 cm of 20th century rise to be accounted for. The
Levitus compilation has virtually foreclosed the attribution of
the residual rise to ocean warming (notwithstanding our ignorance
of the abyssal and Southern Oceans): the historic rise
started too early, has too linear a trend, and is too large.Melting
of polar ice sheets at the upper limit of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change estimates could close the gap, but
severe limits are imposed by the observed perturbations in Earth
rotation. Among possible resolutions of the enigma are: a
substantial reduction from traditional estimates (including ours)
of 1.5–2 mm!y global sea level rise; a substantial increase in the
estimates of 20th century ocean heat storage; and a substantial
change in the interpretation of the astronomic record. |
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|a Electronic reproduction. |c Florida International University, |d 2015. |f (dpSobek) |n Mode of access: World Wide Web. |n System requirements: Internet connectivity; Web browser software. |
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|t Twentieth century sea level |
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|a dpSobek |c Sea Level Rise |
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|u http://dpanther.fiu.edu/dpService/dpPurlService/purl/FI15061853/00001 |y Click here for full text |
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|3 FULL TEXT- Twentieth century sea level |u http://www.pnas.org/content/99/10/6550.long |y Twentieth century sea level |
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|a http://dpanther.fiu.edu/sobek/content/FI/15/06/18/53/00001/FI15061853thm.jpg |
