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- Permanent Link:
- http://dpanther.fiu.edu/dpService/dpPurlService/purl/FI15061847/00001
Notes
- Abstract:
- The range of future climate-induced sea-level rise remains highly uncertain with continued
concern that large increases in the twenty-first century cannot be ruled out. The biggest
source of uncertainty is the response of the large ice sheets of Greenland and west
Antarctica. Based on our analysis, a pragmatic estimate of sea-level rise by 2100, for
a temperature rise of 4◦C or more over the same time frame, is between 0.5m and 2m—
the probability of rises at the high end is judged to be very low, but of unquantifiable
probability. However, if realized, an indicative analysis shows that the impact potential
is severe, with the real risk of the forced displacement of up to 187 million people
over the century (up to 2.4% of global population). This is potentially avoidable by
widespread upgrade of protection, albeit rather costly with up to 0.02 per cent of
global domestic product needed, and much higher in certain nations. The likelihood
of protection being successfully implemented varies between regions, and is lowest in
small islands, Africa and parts of Asia, and hence these regions are the most likely
to see coastal abandonment. To respond to these challenges, a multi-track approach
is required, which would also be appropriate if a temperature rise of less than 4◦C was expected. Firstly, we should monitor sea level to detect any significant accelerations in
the rate of rise in a timely manner. Secondly, we need to improve our understanding of
the climate-induced processes that could contribute to rapid sea-level rise, especially the
role of the two major ice sheets, to produce better models that quantify the likely future
rise more precisely. Finally, responses need to be carefully considered via a combination
of climate mitigation to reduce the rise and adaptation for the residual rise in sea level.
In particular, long-term strategic adaptation plans for the full range of possible sea-level
rise (and other change) need to be widely developed. ( English )
Record Information
- Source Institution:
- Florida International University
- Rights Management:
- Please contact the owning institution for licensing and permissions. It is the user's responsibility to ensure use does not violate any third party rights.
- Resource Identifier:
- 10.1098/rsta.2010.0291 ( doi )
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