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|a Sea-level rise and impacts projections under a future scenario with large greenhouse gas emission reductions |h [electronic resource]. |
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|a [S.l.] : |b American Geophysical Union, |c 2011-06-23. |
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|a Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 38. |
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|a Please contact the owning institution for licensing and permissions. It is the user's responsibility to ensure use does not violate any third party rights. |
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|a Using projections from two coupled climate models
(HadCM3C and HadGEM2‐AO), we consider the effect
on 21st century sea‐level rise (SLR) of mitigation policies
relative to a scenario of business‐as‐usual (BAU). Around
a third of the global‐mean SLR over the century is avoided
by a mitigation scenario under which global‐mean near surface
air temperature stabilises close to the Copenhagen
Accord limit of a 2°C increase. Under BAU (a variant of
the A1B scenario) the model‐averaged projected SLR for
2090–2099 relative to 1980–1999 is 0.29 m–0.51 m (5%–
95% uncertainties from treatment of land‐based ice melt);
under mitigation (E1 scenario) it is 0.17 m–0.34 m. This
reduction is primarily from reduced thermal expansion.
The spatial patterns of regional SLR are fairly dissimilar
between the models, but are qualitatively similar across scenarios
for a particular model. An impacts model suggests
that by the end of the 21st century and without upgrade in
defences around 55% of the 84 million additional people
flooded per year globally under BAU (from SLR alone)
could be avoided under such mitigation. The above projections
of SLR follow the methodology of the IPCC Fourth
Assessment. We have, however, also conducted a sensitivity
study of SLR and its impacts where the possibility of accelerated
ice sheet dynamics is accounted for. |
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|a Electronic reproduction. |c Florida International University, |d 2015. |f (dpSobek) |n Mode of access: World Wide Web. |n System requirements: Internet connectivity; Web browser software. |
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|t Sea-level rise and impacts projections under a future scenario with large greenhouse gas emission reductions |
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|a dpSobek |c Sea Level Rise |
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|u http://dpanther.fiu.edu/dpService/dpPurlService/purl/FI15061832/00001 |y Click here for full text |
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|3 Host material |u http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2011GL047678/abstract |y Sea-level rise and impacts projections under a future scenario with large greenhouse gas emission reductions |
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|a http://dpanther.fiu.edu/sobek/content/FI/15/06/18/32/00001/Pardaens et al_2011_Sea-level rise and impacts projections under a future scenario with largethm.jpg |
