Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States Nationa Climate Assessment
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Material Information

Title:
Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States Nationa Climate Assessment
Creator:
Parris, Adam
Publisher:
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Publication Date:
Language:
English

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Climate change ( lcsh )
Sea level rise ( lcsh )
Floods ( lcsh )
Coastal management ( lcsh )

Notes

Summary:
Global sea level rise (SLR) has been a persistent trend for decades. It is expected to continue beyond the end of this century, which will cause significant impacts in the United States (US). Over eight million people live in areas at risk to coastal flooding, and many of the nation’s assets related to military readiness, energy, commerce, and ecosystems are already located at or near the ocean. Past trends provide valuable evidence in preparing for future environmental change but, by themselves, are insufficient for assessing the risks associated with an uncertain future. For example, a number of recent studies project an increase in the rate and magnitude of global SLR. The US Congress recognizes the need to consider future trends in the Global Change Research Act (USGCRA), which calls for a National Climate Assessment (NCA) every four years. This report provides a synthesis of the scientific literature on global SLR at the request of a federal advisory committee charged with developing the next NCA. This report also provides a set of four global mean SLR scenarios to describe future conditions for the purpose of assessing potential vulnerabilities and impacts. A wide range of estimates for future global mean SLR are scattered throughout the scientific literature and other high profile assessments, such as previous reports of the NCA and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Aside from this report, there is currently no coordinated, interagency effort in the US to identify agreed upon global mean SLR estimates for the purpose of coastal planning, policy, and management. This is an important gap because identifying global mean SLR estimates is a critical step in assessing coastal impacts and vulnerabilities. At present, coastal managers are left to identify global SLR estimates through their own interpretation of the scientific literature or the advice of experts on an ad-hoc basis. Yet, for a great majority of the US coastline, relative sea level (RSL)1 has been rising over the past 60 years, consistent with the global trend. ( English )

Record Information

Source Institution:
Florida International University
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Aggregations:
Sea Level Rise