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|a A methodology for predicting future coastal hazards due to sea-level rise on the California Coast |h [electronic resource]. |
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|a [S.l.] : |b Springer Science +Business Media B.V., |c 2011-09-21. |
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|a Please contact the owning institution for licensing and permissions. It is the user's responsibility to ensure use does not violate any third party rights. |
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|a Sea-level rise will increase the risks associated with coastal hazards of flooding and
erosion. Along the active tectonic margin of California, the diversity in coastal morphology
complicates the evaluation of future coastal hazards. In this study, we estimate future coastal
hazards based on two scenarios generated from a downscaled regional global climate model.
We apply new methodologies using statewide data sets to evaluate potential erosion hazards.
The erosion method relates shoreline change rates to coastal geology then applies changes in
total water levels in exceedance of the toe elevation to predict future erosion hazards. Results
predict 214 km2 of land eroded by 2100 under a 1.4 m sea level rise scenario. Average erosion
distances range from 170 m along dune backed shorelines, to a maximum of 600 m. For cliff
backed shorelines, potential erosion is projected to average 33 m, with a maximum potential
erosion distance of up to 400 m. Erosion along the seacliff backed shorelines was highest in
the geologic units of Cretaceous marine (K) and Franciscan complex (KJf). 100-year future
flood elevations were estimated using two different methods, a base flood elevation approach
extrapolated from existing FEMA flood maps, and a total water level approach based on
calculations of astronomical tides and wave run-up. Comparison between the flooding
methods shows an average difference of about 1.2 m with the total water level method being
routinely lower with wider variability alongshore. While the level of risk (actual amount of
future hazards) may vary from projected, this methodology provides coastal managers with a
planning tool and actionable information to guide adaptation strategies. |
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|a Electronic reproduction. |c Florida International University, |d 2015. |f (dpSobek) |n Mode of access: World Wide Web. |n System requirements: Internet connectivity; Web browser software. |
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|t A methodology for predicting future coastal hazards due to sea-level rise on the California Coast |
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|a dpSobek |c Sea Level Rise |
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|u http://dpanther.fiu.edu/dpService/dpPurlService/purl/FI15061805/00001 |y Click here for full text |
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|3 Host material |u http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-011-0315-2#page-1 |y A methodology for predicting future coastal hazards due to sea-level rise on the California Coast |
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|a http://dpanther.fiu.edu/sobek/content/FI/15/06/18/05/00001/FI15061805_thm.jpg |
