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|a Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century |h [electronic resource]. |
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|a [S.l.] : |b National Academy of Sciences, |c 2013. |
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|a Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. |
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|a Please contact the owning institution for licensing and permissions. It is the user's responsibility to ensure use does not violate any third party rights. |
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|a A recently developed technique for simulating large [O(104)] numbers
of tropical cyclones in climate states described by global gridded
data is applied to simulations of historical and future climate
states simulated by six Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5
(CMIP5) global climate models. Tropical cyclones downscaled from
the climate of the period 1950–2005 are compared with those of
the 21st century in simulations that stipulate that the radiative
forcing from greenhouse gases increases by 8:5 W·m−2over preindustrial
values. In contrast to storms that appear explicitly in
most global models, the frequency of downscaled tropical cyclones
increases during the 21st century in most locations. The intensity
of such storms, as measured by their maximum wind speeds,
also increases, in agreement with previous results. Increases in
tropical cyclone activity are most prominent in the western North
Pacific, but are evident in other regions except for the southwestern
Pacific. The increased frequency of events is consistent with
increases in a genesis potential index based on monthly mean
global model output. These results are compared and contrasted
with other inferences concerning the effect of global warming on
tropical cyclones. |
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|a Electronic reproduction. |c Florida International University, |d 2015. |f (dpSobek) |n Mode of access: World Wide Web. |n System requirements: Internet connectivity; Web browser software. |
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|a dpSobek |c Sea Level Rise |
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|u http://dpanther.fiu.edu/dpService/dpPurlService/purl/FI15061022/00001 |y Click here for full text |
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|a http://dpanther.fiu.edu/sobek/content/FI/15/06/10/22/00001/FI15061022_thm.jpg |
