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|a Long-term sea-level rise implied by 1.5 degree C and 2 degree C warming levels |h [electronic resource]. |
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|a [S.l.] : |b Macmillan Publishers Limited, |c 2012-06-24. |
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|a Nature Climate Change. |
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|a Please contact the owning institution for licensing and permissions. It is the user's responsibility to ensure use does not violate any third party rights. |
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|a Sea-level rise (SLR) is a critical and uncertain climate change
risk, involving timescales of centuries. Here we use a semiempirical
model, calibrated with sea-level data of the past
millennium, to estimate the SLR implications of holding
warming below 2 C or 1.5 C above pre-industrial temperature,
as mentioned in the Cancún Agreements. Limiting warming
to these levels with a probability larger than 50% produces
75–80 cm SLR above the year 2000 by 2100. This is 25 cm
below a scenario with unmitigated emissions, but 15 cm above
a hypothetical scenario reducing global emissions to zero by
2016. The long-term SLR implications of the two warming goals
diverge substantially on a multi-century timescale owing to
inertia in the climate system and the differences in rates of SLR
by 2100 between the scenarios. By 2300 a 1.5 C scenario could
peak sea level at a median estimate of 1.5m above 2000. The
50% probability scenario for 2 C warming would see sea level
reaching 2.7m above 2000 and still rising at about double the
present-day rate. Halting SLR within a few centuries is likely
to be achieved only with the large-scale deployment of CO2
removal efforts, for example, combining large-scale bioenergy
systems with carbon capture and storage. |
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|a Electronic reproduction. |c Florida International University, |d 2015. |f (dpSobek) |n Mode of access: World Wide Web. |n System requirements: Internet connectivity; Web browser software. |
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|t Long-term sea-level rise implied by 1.5 degree C and 2 degree C warming levels |
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|a dpSobek |c Sea Level Rise |
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|u http://dpanther.fiu.edu/dpService/dpPurlService/purl/FI15060989/00001 |y Click here for full text |
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|3 Host material |u http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v2/n12/full/nclimate1584.html |y Long-term sea-level rise implied by 1.5 degree C and 2 degree C warming levels |
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|a http://dpanther.fiu.edu/sobek/content/FI/15/06/09/89/00001/Schaeffer et al_2012_Long-term sea-level rise implied by 1thm.jpg |
