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|a Unarrested development |h [electronic resource]. |
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|a Please contact the owning institution for licensing and permissions. It is the user's responsibility to ensure use does not violate any third party rights. |
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|a The last time sea level rise in Florida was as rapid as some forecasts predict for the coming century, it was about 8,000 years ago and there were Native Americans living on land that now lies beneath the Gulf of Mexico1. It’s safe to assume their retreat from submerging lands was relatively uncomplicated, thanks to low numbers and a simple lifestyle.
For modern-day Florida, adaptation will be a bit more challenging. More than 90 per cent of the 18.5 million residents of the Sunshine State live on the coast. On both sides of the peninsula, development is almost solid and has continued barely abated despite a nearly record number of major hurricane hits in recent years. To further complicate the matter, Florida’s coasts are composed mainly of barrier islands, most of which could be converted to sea floor before the end of the century if sea level rises one metre.
Although the current rate of sea level rise in Florida is at about the global average of around three millimetres per year, a one-metre rise by 2100 isn’t outside the range of recent projections2,3 (see page 44). According to a 2007 study, if a rise of 58 centimetres were realized by 2050, it would cost Florida $92 billion per year owing to losses in tourism and real estate, among other factors, with costs rising exponentially thereafter. By 2060, with a rise of 68 centimetres, 9 per cent of Florida’s land area would be gone, including virtually the entire Florida Keys. In addition, 70 per cent of Florida’s most populous region, Miami, would be underwater, along with two nuclear reactors, 68 hospitals, 334 public schools and 1,362 hotels, motels and inns4.
That vulnerability, combined with its highly concentrated coastal population, means that Florida will be a case study for other states and the world — either in how to prepare for rising sea levels or in what happens if you don’t. For now, at least, lack of legislative and public attention to the issue is leading many experts to bet on the latter.
“Right now Florida is showing almost no leadership on responding sensibly to storms and to rising sea level,” says Robert Young, a coastal geologist at Western Carolina University in Cullowhee, North Carolina. Orrin Pilkey of Duke University in North Carolina, a well-known proponent of greater constraints on coastal development, is even more forthright. “I call it an outlaw state,” he says. “Florida has been particularly irresponsible and it’s going to pay the price very soon.” |
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|a Electronic reproduction. |c Florida International University, |d 2015. |f (dpSobek) |n Mode of access: World Wide Web. |n System requirements: Internet connectivity; Web browser software. |
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|t Unarrested development |
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|a Florida Documents Collection. |
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|a South Florida Collection. |
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|a dpSobek |c Sea Level Rise |
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|u http://dpanther.fiu.edu/dpService/dpPurlService/purl/FI15060987/00001 |y Click here for full text |
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|3 Host material |u http://www.nature.com/climate/2010/1004/full/climate.2010.27.html |y Unarrested development |
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|a http://dpanther.fiu.edu/sobek/content/FI/15/06/09/87/00001/Schrope_2010_Unarrested developmentthm.jpg |
