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|a Constraints on future sea-level rise from past sea-level change |h [electronic resource]. |
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|a [S.l.] : |b Macmillan Publishers Limited, |c 2009. |
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|a Nature Geoscience |b Letters. |
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|a Please contact the owning institution for licensing and permissions. It is the user's responsibility to ensure use does not violate any third party rights. |
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|a It is difficult to project sea-level rise in response to warming
climates by the end of the century, especially because the
response of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to warming
is not well understood1. However, sea-level fluctuations in
response to changing climate have been reconstructed for
the past 22,000 years from fossil data, a period that covers
the transition from the Last Glacial Maximum to the warm
Holocene interglacial period. Herewe present a simple model of
the integrated sea-level response to temperature change that
implicitly includes contributions from the thermal expansion
and the reduction of continental ice. Our model explains
much of the centennial-scale variability observed over the
past 22,000 years, and estimates 4–24 cm of sea-level rise
during the twentieth century, in agreement with the Fourth
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change1 (IPCC). In response to the minimum (1:1 [degree] C) and
maximum (6:4 [degree]C) warming projected for AD 2100 by the IPCC
models, our model predicts 7 and 82 cm of sea-level rise by
the end of the twenty-first century, respectively. The range of
sea-level rise is slightly larger than the estimates from the
IPCC models of 18–76 cm, but is sufficiently similar to increase
confidence in the projections. |
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|a Electronic reproduction. |c Florida International University, |d 2015. |f (dpSobek) |n Mode of access: World Wide Web. |n System requirements: Internet connectivity; Web browser software. |
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|t Constraints on future sea-level rise from past sea-level change |
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|a dpSobek |c Sea Level Rise |
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|u http://dpanther.fiu.edu/dpService/dpPurlService/purl/FI15060980/00001 |y Click here for full text |
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|3 Host material |u http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v2/n8/pdf/ngeo587.pdf |y Constraints on future sea-level rise from past sea-level change |
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|a http://dpanther.fiu.edu/sobek/content/FI/15/06/09/80/00001/FI15060980thm.jpg |
