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|a Sea-level probability for the last deglacation |h [electronic resource] |b A statistical analysis of far-field records. |
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|a Global and Planetary Change. |
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|a Please contact the owning institution for licensing and permissions. It is the user's responsibility to ensure use does not violate any third party rights. |
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|a Pulses of ice-sheet meltwater into the world ocean during the last deglaciation are of
great current interest, because these large-scale events offer important test-beds for
numerical models of the responses of ocean circulation and climate to meltwater
addition. The largest such event has become known as meltwater pulse (mwp) 1a,
with estimates of about 20 m of sea-level rise in about 500 years. A second meltwater
pulse (mwp-1b) has been inferred from some sea-level records, but its existence has
become debated following the presentation of additional records. Even the use of the
more ubiquitous mwp-1a in modelling studies has been compromised by debate about
its exact age, based upon perceived discrepancies between far-field sea-level records.
It is clear that an objective investigation is needed to determine to what level inferred
similarities and/or discrepancies between the various deglacial sea-level records are
statistically rigorous (or not). For that purpose, we present a Monte Carlo style
statistical analysis to determine the highest-probability sea-level history from six key far-field deglacial sea-level records, which fully accounts for realistic methodological
and chronological uncertainties in all these records, and which is robust with respect
to removal of individual component datasets. We find that sea-level rise started to
accelerate into the deglaciation from around 17 ka BP. Within the deglacial rise, there
were two distinct increases; one at around the timing of the Bølling warming (14.6 ka
BP), and another, much broader, event that just post-dates the end of the Younger
Dryas (11.3 ka BP). We interpret these as mwp-1a and mwp-1b, respectively. We find
that mwp-1a occurred between 14.3 ka BP and 12.8 ka BP. Highest rates of sea-level
rise occurred at ~13.8 ka, probably (67% confidence) within the range 100-130
cm/century, although values may have been as high as 260 cm/century (99%
confidence limit). Mwp-1b is robustly expressed as a broad multi-millennial interval
of enhanced rates of sea-level rise between 11.5 ka BP and 8.8 ka BP, with peak rates
of rise of up to 250 cm/century (99 % confidence), but with a probable rate of 130 -
150 cm/century (67 % confidence) at around 9.5 ka BP. When considering the 67 %
probability interval for the deglacial sea-level history, it is clear that both mwp1a and
1b were relatively subdued in comparison to the previously much higher rate estimates. |
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|a Electronic reproduction. |c Florida International University, |d 2015. |f (dpSobek) |n Mode of access: World Wide Web. |n System requirements: Internet connectivity; Web browser software. |
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|t Sea-level probability for the last deglacation |
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|a dpSobek |c Sea Level Rise |
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|u http://dpanther.fiu.edu/dpService/dpPurlService/purl/FI15060976/00001 |y Click here for full text |
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|3 Host material |u http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818110002419 |y Sea-level probability for the last deglacation |
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|a http://dpanther.fiu.edu/sobek/content/FI/15/06/09/76/00001/Stanford et al_2011_Sea-level probability for the last deglaciationthm.jpg |
