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|a Projection of global mean surface air temperature changes in next 40 years |h [electronic resource] |b Uncertainties of climate models and an alternative approach. |
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|a [S.l.] : |b Science China Press, |c 2010. |
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|a Science China |b Earth Sciences. |
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|a Please contact the owning institution for licensing and permissions. It is the user's responsibility to ensure use does not violate any third party rights. |
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|a The Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that the climate
projection using climate models that took account of both human and natural factors provided credible quantitative estimates of
future climate change; however, the mismatches between the IPCC AR4 model ensembles and the observations, especially the
multi-decadal variability (MDV), have cast shadows on the confidence of the model-based decadal projections of future climate.
This paper reports an evaluation of many individual runs of AR4 models in the simulation of past global mean temperature.
We find that most of the individual model runs fail to reproduce the MDV of past climate, which may have led to the
overestimation of the projection of global warming for the next 40 years or so. Based on such an evaluation, we propose an alternative
approach, in which the MDV signal is taken into account, to project the global mean temperature for the next 40 years
and obtain that the global warming during 2011–2050 could be much smaller than the AR4 projection. |
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|a Electronic reproduction. |c Florida International University, |d 2015. |f (dpSobek) |n Mode of access: World Wide Web. |n System requirements: Internet connectivity; Web browser software. |
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|a. |x Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change |
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|a global temperature changes. |
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|a dpSobek |c Sea Level Rise |
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|u http://dpanther.fiu.edu/dpService/dpPurlService/purl/FI15060349/00001 |y Click here for full text |
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|a http://dpanther.fiu.edu/sobek/content/FI/15/06/03/49/00001/FI15060349_thm.jpg |
