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|a Water availability in +2 degrees Celsius and +4 degrees Celsius worlds |h [electronic resource]. |
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|a [S.l.] : |b The Royal Society, |c 2011. |
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|a Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society. |
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|a Please contact the owning institution for licensing and permissions. It is the user's responsibility to ensure use does not violate any third party rights. |
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|a While the parties to the UNFCCC agreed in the December 2009 Copenhagen Accord that
a 2◦C global warming over pre-industrial levels should be avoided, current commitments
on greenhouse gas emissions reductions from these same parties will lead to a 50 : 50
chance of warming greater than 3.5◦C. Here, we evaluate the differences in impacts and
adaptation issues for water resources in worlds corresponding to the policy objective
(+2◦C) and possible reality (+4◦C). We simulate the differences in impacts on surface
run-off and water resource availability using a global hydrological model driven by
ensembles of climate models with global temperature increases of 2◦C and 4◦C. We
combine these with UN-based population growth scenarios to explore the relative
importance of population change and climate change for water availability. We find
that the projected changes in global surface run-off from the ensemble show an increase
in spatial coherence and magnitude for a +4◦C world compared with a +2◦C one. In
a +2◦C world, population growth in most large river basins tends to override climate
change as a driver of water stress, while in a +4◦C world, climate change becomes more
dominant, even compensating for population effects where climate change increases runoff.
However, in some basins where climate change has positive effects, the seasonality of
surface run-off becomes increasingly amplified in a +4◦C climate. |
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|a Electronic reproduction. |c Florida International University, |d 2015. |f (dpSobek) |n Mode of access: World Wide Web. |n System requirements: Internet connectivity; Web browser software. |
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|a dpSobek |c Sea Level Rise |
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|u http://dpanther.fiu.edu/dpService/dpPurlService/purl/FI15060346/00001 |y Click here for full text |
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|a http://dpanther.fiu.edu/sobek/content/FI/15/06/03/46/00001/FI15060346thm.jpg |
