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|a Improved constraints on 21st-century warming derived using 160 years of temperature observations |h [electronic resource]. |
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|a [S.l.] : |b American Geophysical Union, |c 2012. |
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|a Geophysical Research Letters Volume 39. |
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|a Please contact the owning institution for licensing and permissions. It is the user's responsibility to ensure use does not violate any third party rights. |
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|a Projections of 21st century warming may be derived
by using regression-based methods to scale a model’s
projected warming up or down according to whether it
under- or over-predicts the response to anthropogenic
forcings over the historical period. Here we apply such a
method using near surface air temperature observations
over the 1851–2010 period, historical simulations of the
response to changing greenhouse gases, aerosols and
natural forcings, and simulations of future climate change
under the Representative Concentration Pathways from
the second generation Canadian Earth System Model
(CanESM2). Consistent with previous studies, we detect
the influence of greenhouse gases, aerosols and natural
forcings in the observed temperature record. Our estimate
of greenhouse-gas-attributable warming is lower than that
derived using only 1900–1999 observations. Our analysis
also leads to a relatively low and tightly-constrained
estimate of Transient Climate Response of 1.3–1.8°C, and
relatively low projections of 21st-century warming under
the Representative Concentration Pathways. Repeating our
attribution analysis with a second model (CNRM-CM5)
gives consistent results, albeit with somewhat larger
uncertainties. |
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|a Electronic reproduction. |c Florida International University, |d 2015. |f (dpSobek) |n Mode of access: World Wide Web. |n System requirements: Internet connectivity; Web browser software. |
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|a surface air temperature of the earth. |
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|a dpSobek |c Sea Level Rise |
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|u http://dpanther.fiu.edu/dpService/dpPurlService/purl/FI15060340/00001 |y Click here for full text |
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|a http://dpanther.fiu.edu/sobek/content/FI/15/06/03/40/00001/FI15060340_thm.jpg |
