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|a Projected Atlantic hurricane surge threat from rising temperatures |h [electronic resource]. |
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|a [S.l.] : |b National Academy of Sciences, |c 2013. |
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|a Proceedings of the Natural Academy of Sciences. |
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|a Please contact the owning institution for licensing and permissions. It is the user's responsibility to ensure use does not violate any third party rights. |
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|a Detection and attribution of past changes in cyclone activity are
hampered by biased cyclone records due to changes in observational
capabilities. Here, we relate a homogeneous record of Atlantic
tropical cyclone activity based on storm surge statistics from tide
gauges to changes in global temperature patterns. We examine 10
competing hypotheses using nonstationary generalized extreme
value analysis with different predictors (North Atlantic Oscillation,
Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Sahel rainfall,
Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, radiative forcing, Main Development
Region temperatures and its anomaly, global temperatures, and
gridded temperatures). We find that gridded temperatures, Main
Development Region, and global average temperature explain the
observations best. The most extreme events are especially sensitive
to temperature changes, and we estimate a doubling of Katrina
magnitude events associated with the warming over the 20th century.
The increased risk depends on the spatial distribution of the
temperature rise with highest sensitivity from tropical Atlantic,
Central America, and the Indian Ocean. Statistically downscaling
21st century warming patterns from six climate models results in
a twofold to sevenfold increase in the frequency of Katrina magnitude
events for a 1 °C rise in global temperature (using BNU-ESM,
BCC-CSM-1.1, CanESM2, HadGEM2-ES, INM-CM4, and NorESM1-M). |
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|a Electronic reproduction. |c Florida International University, |d 2015. |f (dpSobek) |n Mode of access: World Wide Web. |n System requirements: Internet connectivity; Web browser software. |
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|a Atlantic Ocean Region. |
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|a dpSobek |c Sea Level Rise |
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|u http://dpanther.fiu.edu/dpService/dpPurlService/purl/FI15060332/00001 |y Click here for full text |
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|a http://dpanther.fiu.edu/sobek/content/FI/15/06/03/32/00001/FI15060332_thm.jpg |
