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|a Integrated assessment of global water scarcity over the 21st century under multiple climate change mitigation policies |h [electronic resource]. |
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|a [S.l.] : |b Copernicus Publications, |c 2014. |
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|a Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 18. |
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|a Please contact the owning institution for licensing and permissions. It is the user's responsibility to ensure use does not violate any third party rights. |
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|a Water scarcity conditions over the 21st century
both globally and regionally are assessed in the context of
climate change and climate mitigation policies, by estimating
both water availability and water demand within the Global
Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a leading communityintegrated
assessment model of energy, agriculture, climate,
and water. To quantify changes in future water availability,
a new gridded water-balance global hydrologic model –
namely, the Global Water Availability Model (GWAM) – is
developed and evaluated. Global water demands for six major
demand sectors (irrigation, livestock, domestic, electricity
generation, primary energy production, and manufacturing)
are modeled in GCAM at the regional scale (14 geopolitical
regions, 151 sub-regions) and then spatially downscaled to
0.5[degrees] ×0.5 [degrees] resolution to match the scale of GWAM. Using
a baseline scenario (i.e., no climate change mitigation policy)
with radiative forcing reaching 8.8Wm−2 (equivalent
to the SRES A1Fi emission scenario) and three climate policy
scenarios with increasing mitigation stringency of 7.7,
5.5, and 4.2Wm−2 (equivalent to the SRES A2, B2, and
B1 emission scenarios, respectively), we investigate the effects
of emission mitigation policies on water scarcity. Two
carbon tax regimes (a universal carbon tax (UCT) which includes
land use change emissions, and a fossil fuel and industrial
emissions carbon tax (FFICT) which excludes land
use change emissions) are analyzed. The baseline scenario
results in more than half of the world population living under
extreme water scarcity by the end of the 21st century.
Additionally, in years 2050 and 2095, 36% (28 %) and 44%
(39 %) of the global population, respectively, is projected to
live in grid cells (in basins) that will experience greater water
demands than the amount of available water in a year (i.e.,
the water scarcity index (WSI) >1.0). When comparing the
climate policy scenarios to the baseline scenario while maintaining
the same baseline socioeconomic assumptions, water
scarcity declines under a UCT mitigation policy but increases
with a FFICT mitigation scenario by the year 2095, particularly
with more stringent climate mitigation targets. Under
the FFICT scenario, water scarcity is projected to increase,
driven by higher water demands for bio-energy crops. |
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|a Electronic reproduction. |c Florida International University, |d 2015. |f (dpSobek) |n Mode of access: World Wide Web. |n System requirements: Internet connectivity; Web browser software. |
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|a dpSobek |c Sea Level Rise |
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|u http://dpanther.fiu.edu/dpService/dpPurlService/purl/FI15060310/00001 |y Click here for full text |
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|a http://dpanther.fiu.edu/sobek/content/FI/15/06/03/10/00001/FI15060310thm.jpg |
