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|a Anthropogenic and natural warming inferred from changes in Earth's energy balance |h [electronic resource]. |
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|a [S.l.] : |b Macmillan Publishers Limited, |c 2012-01. |
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|a Nature Geoscience Volume 5. |
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|a Please contact the owning institution for licensing and permissions. It is the user's responsibility to ensure use does not violate any third party rights. |
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|a The Earth’s energy balance is key to understanding climate
and climate variations that are caused by natural and anthropogenic
changes in the atmospheric composition. Despite
abundant observational evidence for changes in the energy
balance over the past decades1–3, the formal detection of climate
warming and its attribution to human influence has so
far relied mostly on the difference between spatio-temporal
warming patterns of natural and anthropogenic origin4–6. Here
we present an alternative attribution method that relies on the
principle of conservation of energy, without assumptions about
spatial warming patterns. Based on a massive ensemble of
simulations with an intermediate-complexity climate model we
demonstrate that known changes in the global energy balance
and in radiative forcing tightly constrain the magnitude of
anthropogenic warming. We find that since the mid-twentieth
century, greenhouse gases contributed 0:85 [degrees]C of warming
(5–95% uncertainty: 0:6–1:1 [degrees]C), about half of which was offset
by the cooling effects of aerosols, with a total observed
change in global temperature of about 0:56 [degrees]C. The observed
trends are extremely unlikely (<5%) to be caused by internal
variability, even if current models were found to strongly
underestimate it. Our method is complementary to optimal
fingerprinting attribution and produces fully consistent results,
thus suggesting an even higher confidence that human-induced
causes dominate the observed warming. |
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|a Electronic reproduction. |c Florida International University, |d 2015. |f (dpSobek) |n Mode of access: World Wide Web. |n System requirements: Internet connectivity; Web browser software. |
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|a Energy balance (biology). |
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|a global temperature changes. |
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|a Markus Huber, |e conference. |4 conference |
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|a dpSobek |c Sea Level Rise |
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|u http://dpanther.fiu.edu/dpService/dpPurlService/purl/FI15052579/00001 |y Click here for full text |
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|a http://dpanther.fiu.edu/sobek/content/FI/15/05/25/79/00001/FI15052579_thm.jpg |
