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|a Inter-annual to multi-decadal Arctic sea ice extent trends in a warming world |h [electronic resource]. |
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|a [S.l.] : |b American Geophysical Union, |c 2011. |
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|a Geophysical Research Letters Volume 38. |
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|a Please contact the owning institution for licensing and permissions. It is the user's responsibility to ensure use does not violate any third party rights. |
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|a A climate model (CCSM4) is used to investigate the
influence of anthropogenic forcing on late 20th century and
early 21st century Arctic sea ice extent trends. On all
timescales examined (2–50+ years), the most extreme
negative observed late 20th century trends cannot be
explained by modeled natural variability alone. Modeled late
20th century ice extent loss also cannot be explained by
natural causes alone, but the six available CCSM4 ensemble
members exhibit a large spread in their late 20th century ice
extent loss. Comparing trends from the CCSM4 ensemble to
observed trends suggests that internal variability explains
approximately half of the observed 1979–2005 September
Arctic sea ice extent loss. In a warming world, CCSM4
shows that multi‐decadal negative trends increase in
frequency and magnitude, and that trend variability on 2–10
year timescales increases. Furthermore, when internal
variability counteracts anthropogenic forcing, positive trends
on 2–20 year timescales occur until the middle of the 21st
century. |
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|a Electronic reproduction. |c Florida International University, |d 2015. |f (dpSobek) |n Mode of access: World Wide Web. |n System requirements: Internet connectivity; Web browser software. |
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|a sea ice--arctic regions. |
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|a dpSobek |c Sea Level Rise |
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|u http://dpanther.fiu.edu/dpService/dpPurlService/purl/FI15052556/00001 |y Click here for full text |
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|a http://dpanther.fiu.edu/sobek/content/FI/15/05/25/56/00001/FI15052526_thm.jpg |
