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|a The poleward migration of the location of tropical cyclone maximum intensity |h [electronic resource]. |
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|a [S.l.] : |b Macmillan Publishers Limited, |c 2014-05. |
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|a Nature Magazine Volume 509 |b Letters. |
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|a Please contact the owning institution for licensing and permissions. It is the user's responsibility to ensure use does not violate any third party rights. |
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|a Temporally inconsistent and potentially unreliable global historical
data hinder the detection of trends in tropical cyclone activity1–3.This
limits our confidence in evaluating proposed linkages between observed
trends in tropical cyclones and in the environment.Here we
mitigate this difficulty by focusing on a metric that is comparatively
insensitive to past data uncertainty, and identify a pronounced polewardmigration
in the average latitude atwhich tropical cyclones have
achievedtheir lifetime-maximumintensity over the past 30 years.The
poleward trends are evident in the global historical data in both the
Northern and the Southern hemispheres, with rates of 53 and 62 kilometresper
decade, respectively, andare statistically significant.When
considered together, the trends in each hemisphere depict a globalaverage
migration of tropical cyclone activity away fromthe tropics
at a rate of about one degree of latitude per decade, which lies within
the range of estimates of the observed expansion of the tropics over
the same period. The global migration remains evident and statistically
significant under a formal data homogenization procedure,
and is unlikely to be a data artefact. The migration away from the
tropics is apparently linked to marked changes in the mean meridional
structure of environmental vertical wind shear and potential
intensity, and can plausibly be linked to tropical expansion, which is
thought to have anthropogenic contributions. |
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|a Electronic reproduction. |c Florida International University, |d 2015. |f (dpSobek) |n Mode of access: World Wide Web. |n System requirements: Internet connectivity; Web browser software. |
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|a dpSobek |c Sea Level Rise |
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|u http://dpanther.fiu.edu/dpService/dpPurlService/purl/FI15052540/00001 |y Click here for full text |
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|a http://dpanther.fiu.edu/sobek/content/FI/15/05/25/40/00001/FI15052540_thm.jpg |
