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|a Uncertainty in climate change projections |h [electronic resource]. |
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|a [S.l.] : |b Elsevier, |c 2010-05-13. |
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|a Journal of Geochemical Exploration 110. |
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|a Please contact the owning institution for licensing and permissions. It is the user's responsibility to ensure use does not violate any third party rights. |
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|a Twentieth century climate exhibits a strong warming trend. There is a broad scientific consensus that the
warming contains a significant contribution from enhanced atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations
due to anthropogenic emissions. The climate will continue to warm during the 21st century due to the
large inertia of the Earth System and in response to additional GHG emissions, but by how much remains
highly uncertain. This is mainly due to three factors: natural variability, model uncertainty, and GHG emission
scenario uncertainty. Uncertainty due to natural variability dominates at short time scales of a few years up to
a few decades, while at the longer centennial time scales scenario uncertainty provides the largest
contribution to the total uncertainty. Model uncertainty is important at all lead times. Furthermore, our
understanding of the Earth System dynamics is incomplete. Potentially important feedbacks such as the
carbon cycle feedback are not well understood and not even taken into account in many model projections.
Yet the scientific evidence is overwhelming that the global mean surface temperature will exceed a level
toward the end of the 21st century that will be unprecedented during the history of mankind, even if strong
measures are taken to reduce global GHG emissions. It is this long-term perspective that demands immediate
political action. |
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|a Electronic reproduction. |c Florida International University, |d 2015. |f (dpSobek) |n Mode of access: World Wide Web. |n System requirements: Internet connectivity; Web browser software. |
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|a long-range weather forecasting. |
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|t Uncertainty in climate change projections |
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|a dpSobek |c Sea Level Rise |
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|u http://dpanther.fiu.edu/dpService/dpPurlService/purl/FI15052535/00001 |y Click here for full text |
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|3 FULL TEXT- Uncertainty in climate change projections |u http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0375674210001433 |y Uncertainty in climate change projections |
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|a http://dpanther.fiu.edu/sobek/content/FI/15/05/25/35/00001/FI15052535_thm.jpg |
