Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system
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Material Information

Title:
Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system
Series Title:
Proceedings of the National Academy of Science
Creator:
Timothy M. Lenton
Hermann Held
Elmar Kriegler
Jim W. Hall
Wolfgang Lucht
Stefan Rahmstorf
Hans Joachim Schellnhuber
Publisher:
National Academy of Science
Publication Date:
Language:
English

Notes

Abstract:
The term ‘‘tipping point’’ commonly refers to a critical threshold at which a tiny perturbation can qualitatively alter the state or development of a system. Here we introduce the term ‘‘tipping element’’ to describe large-scale components of the Earth system that may pass a tipping point. We critically evaluate potential policy-relevant tipping elements in the climate system under anthropogenic forcing, drawing on the pertinent literature and a recent international workshop to compile a short list, and we assess where their tipping points lie. An expert elicitation is used to help rank their sensitivity to global warming and the uncertainty about the underlying physical mechanisms. Then we explain how, in principle, early warning systems could be established to detect the proximity of some tipping points.

Record Information

Source Institution:
Florida International University
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