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|a El Nino modulations over the past centuries |h [electronic resource]. |
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|a [S.l.] : |b Macmillan Publishers Limited, |c 2013-09. |
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|a Nature Climate Change Volume 3. |
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|a Please contact the owning institution for licensing and permissions. It is the user's responsibility to ensure use does not violate any third party rights. |
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|a Predicting how the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) will
change with global warming is of enormous importance to
society1–4. ENSO exhibits considerable natural variability at
interdecadal–centennial timescales5. Instrumental records are
too short to determine whether ENSO has changed6 and existing
reconstructions are often developed without adequate
tropical records. Here we present a seven-century-long ENSO
reconstruction based on 2,222 tree-ring chronologies from
both the tropics and mid-latitudes in both hemispheres.
The inclusion of tropical records enables us to achieve
unprecedented accuracy, as attested by high correlations
with equatorial Pacific corals7,8 and coherent modulation of
global teleconnections that are consistent with an independent
Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstruction9. Our data
indicate that ENSO activity in the late twentieth century was
anomalously high over the past seven centuries, suggestive
of a response to continuing global warming. Climate models
disagree on the ENSO response to global warming3,4, suggesting
that many models underestimate the sensitivity to
radiative perturbations. Illustrating the radiative effect, our
reconstruction reveals a robust ENSOresponse to large tropical
eruptions, with anomalous cooling in the east-central tropical
Pacific in the year of eruption, followed by anomalous warming
one year after. Our observations provide crucial constraints for
improving climate models and their future projections. |
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|a Electronic reproduction. |c Florida International University, |d 2015. |f (dpSobek) |n Mode of access: World Wide Web. |n System requirements: Internet connectivity; Web browser software. |
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|a dpSobek |c Sea Level Rise |
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|u http://dpanther.fiu.edu/dpService/dpPurlService/purl/FI15052526/00001 |y Click here for full text |
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|a http://dpanther.fiu.edu/sobek/content/FI/15/05/25/26/00001/FI15052526_thm.jpg |
