| 008 |
|
150526n^^^^^^^^xx^||||^o^^^^^|||^u^eng^d |
| 245 |
00 |
|a The velocity of climate change |h [electronic resource]. |
| 506 |
|
|a Please contact the owning institution for licensing and permissions. It is the user's responsibility to ensure use does not violate any third party rights. |
| 520 |
3 |
|a The ranges of plants and animals are moving in response to recent changes in climate. As temperatures rise, ecosystems with ‘nowhere to go’, such as mountains, are considered more threatened. However, species survival may depend as much on keeping pace with moving climates as the climate’s ultimate persistence. Here, we present a new index of the velocity of temperature change (km yr-1), derived from spatial gradients (ºC km-1) and multimodel ensemble forecasts of rates of temperature increase (ºC yr-1) in the 21st century. This index represents the instantaneous local velocity along Earth’s surface needed to maintain constant temperatures, and has a global mean of 0.42 km yr-1 (A1B emission scenario). Due to topographic effects, the velocity of temperature change is lowest in mountainous biomes such as tropical and subtropical coniferous forests (0.08 km yr-1), temperate coniferous forest, and montane grasslands. Velocities are highest in flooded grasslands (1.26 km yr-1), mangroves, and deserts. High velocities suggest that the climates of only 8% of global protected areas have residence times exceeding 100 years. Small protected areas exacerbate the problem in mediterranean-type and temperate coniferous forest biomes. Large protected areas may mitigate the problem in desert biomes. These results suggest management strategies for minimizing biodiversity loss from climate change. Montane landscapes may effectively shelter many species into the next century. Elsewhere, reduced emissions, a much expanded network of protected areas, or efforts to increase species movement may be necessary. |
| 533 |
|
|a Electronic reproduction. |c Florida International University, |d 2015. |f (dpSobek) |n Mode of access: World Wide Web. |n System requirements: Internet connectivity; Web browser software. |
| 650 |
|
|a global temperature changes. |
| 773 |
0 |
|t The velocity of climate change |
| 852 |
|
|a dpSobek |c Sea Level Rise |
| 856 |
40 |
|u http://dpanther.fiu.edu/dpService/dpPurlService/purl/FI15052523/00001 |y Click here for full text |
| 856 |
42 |
|3 The velocity of climate change |u https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20033047 |y The velocity of climate change |
| 992 |
04 |
|a http://dpanther.fiu.edu/sobek/content/FI/15/05/25/23/00001/FI15052523_thm.jpg |
