IPCC climate models do not capture Arctic sea ice drift acceleration
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Material Information

Title:
IPCC climate models do not capture Arctic sea ice drift acceleration Consequences in terms of projected sea ice thinning and decline
Series Title:
Journal of Geophysical Research Volume 116
Creator:
P. Rampal
J. Weiss
C. Dubois
J.M. Campin
Affiliation:
Massachusetts Institute of Technology -- Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences
Massachusetts Institute of Technology -- College of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences
Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques
Massachussets Institute of Technology -- College of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union
Publication Date:
Language:
English

Notes

Abstract:
IPCC climate models underestimate the decrease of the Arctic sea ice extent. The recent Arctic sea ice decline is also characterized by a rapid thinning and by an increase of sea ice kinematics (velocities and deformation rates), with both processes being coupled through positive feedbacks. In this study we show that IPCC climate models underestimate the observed thinning trend by a factor of almost 4 on average and fail to capture the associated accelerated motion. The coupling between the ice state (thickness and concentration) and ice velocity is unexpectedly weak in most models. In particular, sea ice drifts faster during the months when it is thick and packed than when it is thin, contrary to what is observed; also models with larger long‐term thinning trends do not show higher drift acceleration. This weak coupling behavior (1) suggests that the positive feedbacks mentioned above are underestimated and (2) can partly explain the models’ underestimation of the recent sea ice area, thickness, and velocity trends. Due partly to this weak coupling, ice export does not play an important role in the simulated negative balance of Arctic sea ice mass between 1950 and 2050. If we assume a positive trend on ice speeds at straits equivalent to the one observed since 1979 within the Arctic basin, first‐order estimations give shrinking and thinning trends that become significantly closer to the observations. ( English )

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Florida International University
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